双语:The Big Mac Index: Meat Reversion
发布时间:2018年01月02日
发布人:nanyuzi  

The Big Mac Index: Meat Reversion

巨无霸指数:汉堡价格回升


The dollar has slipped over the past six months, but still looks dear

过去六个月美元下滑,但看起来仍然昂贵


Thirty-one years ago, The Economist created the Big Mac index as a way of gauging how different currencies stacked up against the dollar. The index is based on the theory of purchasing-power parity, the idea that in the long run, exchange rates should adjust so that the price of an identical basket of tradable goods is the same. Our basket contains one item, a Big Mac.


31年前,《经济学人》创造了巨无霸指数(the Big Mac index),用来衡量不同货币相对于美元的估值程度。该指数基于购买力平价理论,即从长远来看,汇率应该会自行调整,使相同的一篮子可交易商品价格趋于一致。我们的篮子里就一件商品:一个巨无霸汉堡。


The latest version of the index shows, for example, that a Big Mac costs $5.30 in America, but just ¥380 ($3.36) in Japan. The Japanese yen is thus, by our meaty logic, 37% undervalued against the dollar.


例如,最新的指数显示,一个巨无霸在美国的售价为5.30美元,而在日本仅售380日元(3.36美元)。因此,按照我们的汉堡逻辑,日元兑美元汇率被低估了37%。


In that, the yen is not alone. The greenback has strengthened considerably in recent years: of the 34 currencies we track in the full index, 31 are currently undervalued against the dollar. Only the Swiss franc, Norwegian krone and Swedish krona are overvalued. That said, plenty of currencies have clawed back some ground against the dollar in the past six months.


日元并非孤例。近年来美元大幅升值:我们的完整指数所跟踪的34种货币中,有31种兑美元的汇率目前被低估。只有瑞士法郎、挪威克朗和瑞典克朗被高估。不过,过去六个月来,许多货币兑美元的汇率都已有所回升。


Take, for example, the Egyptian pound, which burgernomics holds to be the most undervalued currency. In November, the Egyptian government decided to allow its currency to float freely. By December the pound had fallen to its current value of around 18 per dollar. Inflation has soared as a consequence, averaging 30% over the past six months. Big Mac prices have increased accordingly, from 27.5 pounds ($1.53) to 31.4. The net result, according to our index, is that the Egyptian pound has gone from 71% undervalued against the dollar in January to 67% today.


以埃及镑为例,汉堡经济学认为它是最被低估的货币。去年11月,埃及政府决定允许其货币自由浮动。到12月,埃及镑已经下降到现在1美元兑换18磅左右的水平。通胀随之飙升,过去六个月里平均每月升幅为30%。巨无霸价格也相应上涨,从27.5镑(1.53美元)升至31.4镑。根据我们的指数,汇率下跌和通胀上升相抵后,埃及镑兑美元从1月的低估71%变成现在的低估67%。


The euro has also gained ground in the same period. The single currency buys $1.14 today, up from $1.05 at the start of the year; the euro has gone from being 20% undervalued against the dollar in our index, to 16% undercooked. That reflects a mixture of politics and economics. Eurosceptic parties were beaten back at the polls in both the Netherlands and France, muting fears that populists would find success. The euro zone grew substantially faster than the American economy in the first quarter, and the European Central Bank has started to signal that its policy of extraordinary monetary stimulus will not last forever. If Europe’s recovery continues to strengthen, American tourists to the continent may end up getting less burger for their buck.


欧元在同一时期也有所回升。这个欧洲单一货币如今1元可兑换1.14美元,高于年初的1.05美元。我们的指数显示,欧元兑美元一度被低估了20%,现在则是16%。这反映了政治和经济的共同作用。荷兰和法国的民意调查显示,疑欧党派气焰受到压制,消减了人们对民粹主义者将会取得成功的恐惧。今年第一季度,欧元区经济增长速度远超美国,欧洲央行也已开始发出信号,表示大力度的货币刺激政策不会永远持续。如果欧洲的复苏继续加强,到欧洲大陆的美国游客用美元能买到的汉堡可能会变少。

 

One of the best-performing currencies over the past six months has been the Mexican peso. In January, the peso had fallen to a record low of 22 to the dollar, thanks in no small part to fears of a possible trade war with Mexico’s northern neighbour. But markets have become increasingly sceptical that Donald Trump will follow through on his most blood-curdling trade threats. The peso has recovered ground and hovers at around 18 per dollar. The Mexican currency is now only 48% undervalued against the greenback, compared with 56% in January.


过去六个月表现最好的货币之一是墨西哥比索。今年1月,比索兑美元的汇率跌至22:1的创纪录低点,这在很大程度上是缘于该国可能会与北边邻国发生贸易战的担忧。然而市场越来越怀疑特朗普是否会兑现他那些最吓人的贸易威胁。比索兑美元汇率已经回升至18:1左右,兑美元现在只被低估48%,而1月份为56%。


Markets are also losing faith in Mr Trump’s ability to pass domestic economic reforms. On the campaign trail, the president-to-be promised expansionary fiscal policies, including tax cuts and increased infrastructure spending. Traders believed that the Federal Reserve would be forced to increase interest rates in response. The dollar surged, reaching a 15-year high in January. Since then, the dollar has slipped by 5% on a trade-weighted basis. That not only vindicates those sceptical of Mr Trump’s legislative prowess. It’s also a partial vindication for believers in burgernomics. If our index has any fact content, the dollar may have further to fall.


市场对特朗普通过国内经济改革的能力也正失去信心。在竞选过程中,这位待选总统承诺将采取扩张性财政政策,包括减税和增加基础设施支出。交易者认为美联储将因此被迫加息。此后美元飙升,在1月达到15年来的最高点。但从那时起至今,美元按贸易加权计算已经下滑了5%。这不仅证实了那些怀疑特朗普推动立法能力的人的看法,也部分证明了相信汉堡经济学的人没错。如果说我们的指数还算靠得住,美元可能还得进一步下跌。


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