Schumpeter: The Santa Clause

熊彼特：圣诞老人条款

 

A festive memo from one of America’s leading chief executives to his lieutenants

美国一位知名首席执行官致部下的节日信

 

Dear team, I trust you are looking forward to your vacations and that the spirit of love and generosity infuses your family gatherings. I also hope that this spirit will be left next to the Christmas tree when you return to work at this incredible company on January 2nd. Because 2018 is going to be the year when America Inc loses its head after a decade of iron financial self-control. And I am not going to make that mistake. Let me drop some festive wisdom: when everyone else is throwing money around like Santa, it is best to behave like Scrooge.

 

亲爱的团队，我相信大家都在翘首期盼假期的到来，也相信各位的家庭聚会将沉浸在爱与慷慨的氛围中。但我也希望，待1月2日大家回到我们这家卓越的公司时，就把这种氛围搁置在圣诞树旁好了。这是因为，美国商界在坚持了十年的铁腕式财务自律后，将在2018年失去理智，而我不会犯这个错误。让我给大家送去一句节日箴言：当其他所有人都像圣诞老人那样到处撒钱时，最好还是像斯克鲁奇【译注：Scrooge，狄更斯小说《圣诞欢歌》中的守财奴】那样行事。

 

During my workout at 5.10am this morning my trainer played U2. I love Bono for his personal advice on charitable giving, but he is also a perceptive lyricist. “It’s a beautiful day” captures the mood in business. Third-quarter results blew the roof off. Earnings per share for the S&P 500 are 23% above the last peak in 2007. The world economy is rocking. At this week’s digital town halls our sales teams in Houston and Guangzhou reported record industrial orders. President Macron – whom I first met in 2008 when he was a junior spreadsheet guy at Rothschild – tells me that even the Europeans are doing high fives.

 

今天早上5点10分我健身时，我的教练播放了U2的歌。我喜欢这支乐队的主唱博诺，欣赏他个人对慈善捐赠的建言，不过他也是一位感觉敏锐的词作家。《这是美丽的一天》（It’s a beautiful day）这首歌捕捉到了如今商界的气氛。第三季度业绩牛气冲天。标普500指数的每股收益比2007年的上一个峰值高出23%。世界经济一片欢腾。本周的数字员工大会上，我们在休斯敦和广州的销售团队汇报了创纪录的工业订单。法国总统马克龙（2008年我第一次见他时，他还是罗斯柴尔德银行一个做报表的初级员工）告诉我，连欧洲商界也是一派击掌欢庆的气氛。

 

The triple adrenaline shot of a stock market boom, synchronised global growth and a worldwide passion for technology is both exciting and dangerous for corporations. Let’s not kid ourselves. People will get sloppy about allocating capital. My worst blunders were in the boom years of 1998 to 2001, when we caught the internet bug too early, and between 2006 and 2008 when we invested too much in energy. Every boss is tempted to splurge right now, cheered on by politicians, economists and investors.

 

股市繁荣、全球同步增长、全世界对科技热情满腔，这三重刺激对企业来说既振奋又危险。我们还是不要自我欺骗了。人们在资本配置上会变得马虎轻率。我犯过的最大错误就是在1998年至2001年的热潮中过早追捧互联网，还有在2006年至2008年期间过度投资能源业。现在，在政客、经济学者和投资者的鼓动下，企业老板们都蠢蠢欲动，准备挥霍一番。

 

I waded through Washington last week. The tax bill will boost our profits by 9%. After I got mad at Mitch McConnell, he reinserted a helpful clause that will save us money in Cayman. Our firm will pay only a small levy to repatriate cash held offshore and will benefit from accelerated depreciation. Like most companies, we’ve also noticed a better attitude from our regulators: unlike the Obama years, I get my calls returned. There is a price, though. Many Republicans are sincere – they believe in “trickle down” economics and expect us to invest more. A few even expect us to revive the rustbelt. When I saw the president, he gave me his hardest sell yet on building a new plant in Iowa. Ivanka had to turn on Fox News to distract him.

 

上周我到华盛顿走了一趟。新税改议案将使我们的利润提高9%。参议院共和党领袖麦康奈尔（Mitch McConnell）在我动怒后又加入了一个条款，能帮我们节省在开曼群岛的资金。我们公司只需要支付一小笔税款就可以把海外资金汇回美国，美元的加速贬值也对我们有利。和大多数公司一样，我们也注意到美国监管机构的态度有所好转：与奥巴马时代不同的是，现在这些监管者会回应我的呼吁了。但这是有代价的。许多共和党人都很真诚——他们信奉“涓滴经济学”，期望我们能增加投资。他们中有些人还指望我们重振“铁锈地带”。我拜访总统时，他竭力劝说我在爱荷华州建一座新工厂。他女儿伊万卡只好打开福克斯新闻频道来分散他的注意力。

 

The intellectual climate has turned pro-investment. Most economists claim firms are chronically underspending. I know that 67.384% of that is BS. Our job is not to flip-flop according to their models but to deploy capital over economic and technology cycles. Gross corporate investment, at 12.4% of GDP, is in line with the 50-year average, and we have invested a steady share of sales. Still, they are right that many big firms have the resources to let their hair down and let capex rise in line with record profits.

 

学者们也纷纷转向提倡加大投资。大多数经济学家都说企业投资支出长期低迷。我知道，这里头67.384%是胡扯。我们要做的不是跟着他们的模型来回折腾，而是按照经济和科技周期配置资本。当前，公司投资总额占GDP的12.4%，与50年来的平均水平持平，而我们也一直把销售收入的固定比例用于投资。然而，这些经济学者有一个观点是对的：许多大公司资源充足，无需捂紧钱袋子，可以在拿下创纪录利润的同时增加资本支出。

 

Investors are pivoting, too. The same Wall Street analysts that used to say the “L” in long-term stands for “loser”, and begged us to buy back more shares two years ago, now hint we should seek to grow. For the first time in years the shares of firms that invest heavily are no longer underperforming, according to Morgan Stanley. Buy-backs are out of style: just $128bn was spent on them last quarter, 20% less than in the same quarter in 2015.

 

投资者也在转向。就是这同一群华尔街的分析师，两年前他们说长线投资是窝囊废，恳求我们回购更多股份，现在又暗示我们应该扩大投资。摩根士丹利的数据显示，大举投资的公司一改多年的逊色表现，跑赢了大市。股份回购已变得不合时宜：上季度在回购上的支出仅为1280亿美元，比2015年同期减少了20%。

 

Twenty years ago, CEOs would have looked at all this and asked “how much” more they should invest. But to understand investment today you have to do a deep dive and answer four other questions: who, what, where and when? Our firm used to be America’s third-biggest investor, just behind ExxonMobil. But “who” invests has changed: Alphabet has taken our place (including research and development). Tech firms are competing with incumbents and using their dirt-cheap cost of capital to invest on their behalf. They account for 24% of investment by S&P 500 firms. My buddy Satya Nadella at Microsoft says if we shift our IT centres to his cloud division, we’ll save $700m of investment a year. If I can trust Microsoft not to steal our data, he’s got a deal.

 

假如是在20年前，CEO们会研究这一切然后问应该增加“多少”投资。但是，要了解如今的投资，你必须深入探究并回答另外四个问题：谁在投资、投资什么、投向何处、何时投资？我们公司曾经是美国第三大投资者，紧随埃克森美孚之后。而现在“谁在投资”的答案已经不一样了：Alphabet已经取代了我们的位置（包括在研发方面）。科技公司正在与传统企业竞争，并利用成本极为低廉的资本开展自己的投资。它们占了标普500公司投资总量的24%。我在微软的好友萨蒂亚·纳德拉（Satya Nadella）说，如果我们把IT中心转移到他的云计算部门，我们将每年节省七亿美元的投资。要是我能信任微软不会窃取我们的数据，这笔交易完全可行。

 

“What” we invest in has changed, too. Like most firms, a quarter of our budget goes on intangibles, including software. When I grew up AI was an acronym used in animal husbandry, but I know our firm needs to make mid-size bets on new technologies like artificial intelligence. Tech cuts both ways, though: I’m nervous about building factories that may quickly become obsolete.

 

至于我们要“投资什么”，答案也变了。与大多数公司一样，我们四分之一的预算都投资在包括软件在内的无形资产上。在我小时候，“AI”还是“畜牧业”一词的缩写，但我知道我们公司需要对人工智能这类新科技做中度规模的投资。然而科技是把双刃剑：我很怕建立那种可能很快就会过时的工厂。

 

As for “where”, it’s simple: everywhere. We’re fairly typical for a big American firm, with 40% of our sales and investment abroad. Given that emerging markets will outpace America, that may rise. Other countries are being protectionist, too. President Xi’s people are clear that if we want full access to China’s domestic market, we have to invest more there. We have to pay to play.

 

至于投向“何处”，倒很简单：到处投。我们是一家相当典型的美国大公司，海外销售和投资占40%。鉴于新兴市场发展速度会超过美国，这一比例可能还会上升。而其他国家的保护主义倾向也在增强。中国的态度很清晰：美国公司要全面进入中国国内市场，就必须在那里加大投资。要玩游戏就得付入场费。

 

Lastly, “when” should our firm invest more? Now, in the 101st month of a recovery? The longest-ever expansion, in 1991-2001, lasted 120 months. I have got to admit, it’s a tough call.

 

最后，我们公司应在“何时”加大投资？是现在，也就是经济复苏的第101个月吗？鉴于史上最长的一次扩张期从1991年到2001年持续了120个月，我得承认，这是一个艰难的决定。

 

A turkey shoot in 2020

在2020年大获全胜

 

Here is my prediction. Expect a surge in corporate investment in 2018, with nominal spending rising by up to 10%, equalling the boom in 2006. There’s just too much pent-up energy. But it will be more skewed towards intangible assets than in the past, and while it will help the economy, it won’t revive the rustbelt.

 

我的预测是这样的。2018年企业投资将会激增，名义支出将上升10%，达到2006年繁荣时期的水平。因为资本的力量被压抑太久了。然而，投资将比过往更倾向于无形资产。另外，投资虽然有助经济发展，但无法复兴铁锈地带。

 

As for our firm. I get it, I know our investment committee is besieged. We need a new campus in Austin, our software is buggy and fleet management wants Teslas. But leadership is about prioritisation, not saying “yes” to everyone. If you doubt it, repeat two words after me: Jeff Immelt. The former boss of General Electric was so soft on capital allocation the firm has turned to jelly.

 

至于我们公司，我很清楚，咱们的投资委员会正对各种要求应接不暇。我们需要在奥斯汀建立新的园区，我们的软件漏洞重重，车辆管理部门希望改用特斯拉电动车。然而领导力的精髓就在于定好轻重缓急，而不是答应每个人的要求。不信的话，跟我念一个名字：杰夫·伊梅尔特（Jeff Immelt）。这位通用电气的前老板在资本配置上表现软弱，最终令公司阵脚大乱。

 

So, here’s the deal. Santa isn’t coming to this company. We’ll wait as our rivals’ budgets swell and the tech boom turns into a bubble. When recession strikes in 2019 our balance-sheet will be pristine and we’ll expand when others are weak. In Christmas 2020 this incredible firm will enjoy the biggest stocking ever.

 

所以这么办吧：今年，圣诞老人不会到我们公司来。在我们的对手预算膨胀、科技热潮变为泡沫之时，我们静静等待。到2019年经济进入衰退期，我们的资产负债表将毫发无损，我们趁别人虚弱之时大举扩张。到2020年的圣诞节，我们这家非凡的公司将尽情享受有史以来最丰厚的圣诞礼物。

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