The American Economy: Powell Position

美国经济：财位新官

Could higher interest rates spoil America’s economic boom?

更高的利率是否会破坏美国的经济繁荣？

Amending a famous metaphor, Janet Yellen once said that the Federal Reserve would “keep refilling the punch bowl until the guests have all arrived”. Last week investors began to wonder if Jerome Powell, who will shortly succeed Ms Yellen at the top of the Fed, might at last deem the party full. On January 29th the ten-year Treasury yield reached 2.7%, the highest since early 2014. The prospect of tighter money caused stockmarkets to sneeze. On January 30th the S&P 500 fell by 1.1%, its biggest decline since August, before recovering a tiny bit the next day. With unemployment low and tax cuts pending, investors are wondering whether inflation and interest rates might soon surge.

珍妮特·耶伦曾经修改了一则著名的比喻，她说美联储将“不断添满酒坛，直到客人到齐”【译者注：在上世纪50至70年代担任美联储主席的威廉·马丁曾说，美联储的工作是“在派对兴致正浓时拿走酒坛”】。上周，投资者开始怀疑，不久将接替耶伦领导美联储的杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）会最终认为派对已经满员。1月29日，十年期国债收益率达到2.7%，创下2014年初以来新高。银根收紧的预期让股市打了喷嚏。1月30日，标准普尔500指数下跌了1.1%，是8月以来的最大跌幅，第二天稍有反弹。失业率很低，而税收减免即将到来，投资者开始思考通胀和利率是否很快会迅速上涨。

The economy grew by 2.5% in the year to the fourth quarter of 2017. According to Okun’s law, a rule of thumb relating unemployment to GDP, falling joblessness explains almost half of this growth. (The unemployment rate fell from 4.7% to 4.1% over the same period.) Early in the year inflation fell short, suggesting that fast growth could continue unabated. But pressure on prices has begun to build. Quarterly core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, was only just below the Fed’s 2% target at the end of 2017. Markets have recently come to believe rate-setters who say that they will tighten policy three times in 2018, as happened in 2017.

在截至2017年第四季度的一年里，美国经济增长了2.5%。根据奥肯定律这一关于失业率与GDP关系的经验法则，失业率的下降几乎解释了这一增长的一半。（同期失业率从4.7%下降到4.1%。）去年年初，通货膨胀率未达预期，表明快速增长可能继续一路高歌。但价格压力已经开始累积。到了2017年底，将波动较大的食品和能源价格排除在外的季度核心通胀率仅略低于美联储2%的目标。利率制定者说他们将在2018年三次收紧政策，就像2017年那样。市场参与者最近开始相信他们的说法了。

The prospect of higher rates has bears worried, for three reasons. First, they think asset markets are not ready for higher rates. On January 29th, before the market wobble, an index of financial conditions compiled by Goldman Sachs, which falls as conditions loosen, touched an all-time low. Postponed rate rises have propelled asset prices in recent years; surprisingly tight policy could have the reverse effect.

利率上涨的前景让看空者担心的原因有三。首先，他们认为资产市场还没有为提高利率做好准备。1月29日，在市场震荡之前，高盛编制的财务状况指数（在银根放松时下降）触及历史低位。推迟加息推动了近几年资产价格的上涨；出乎意料的紧缩政策则可能会产生相反的影响。

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