双语:Buttonwood: Not Barking Yet
发布时间:2018年04月13日
发布人:nanyuzi  

Buttonwood: Not Barking Yet

梧桐:还没叫

 

Why gold has not responded to geopolitical risk or reflation talk

为何黄金对地缘政治风险或通货再膨胀言论尚无反应

 

America has bombed Syria, and its relations with Russia have deteriorated. North Korea is developing a long-range nuclear missile, a development which Donald Trump has vowed to stop, unilaterally if necessary. There is talk of a “reflation trade”, with tax cuts in America pepping up global growth.

 

美国轰炸了叙利亚,它和俄罗斯的关系也已恶化。朝鲜正在研发远程核导弹,特朗普曾发誓要加以阻挠,称如有必要将采取单边行动。随着美国减税刺激全球增长,“通货再膨胀贸易”的说法已经出现。

 

All this ought to be good news for gold, the precious metal that usually gains at times of political uncertainty or rising inflation expectations. Gold took a hit when Mr Trump was elected in November and is still well below its level of last July. As a watchdog, gold has failed to bark.

 

这些对于黄金来说应该都是好消息——这种贵金属在政治不确定期或通胀预期上升时通常都会升值。去年11月特朗普当选时金价曾受打击,目前仍远低于去年7月的水平。作为看门狗,黄金没有叫。

 

Bullion enjoyed a ten-year bull market from 2001 to 2011, when it peaked at $1,898 an ounce. This long upward run was bolstered in its later stages by two developments: first, the use of quantitative easing (QE) by central banks, which gold bugs argued would inevitably lead to high inflation; and second by the euro crisis, which caused nervousness about the potential for a break-up of the single currency and about the safety of European banks. By 2013, however, euro-zone worries were fading and, despite QE, no inflation had been seen. The gold price fell sharply and has stayed in a narrow range since.

 

从2001年起,黄金享受了十年的牛市,在2011年达到每盎司1898美元的最高位。在后期支撑这一长期上行走势的是两大因素。其一是各央行实行量化宽松。黄金信徒认为此举将不可避免地导致高通胀;二是欧元危机令人们担心该单一货币可能崩盘以及欧洲银行是否安全。不过到2013年,欧元区的担忧消退;而且,尽管采取了量化宽松,通胀并未出现。金价大幅下跌,之后也一直窄幅波动。

 

Last year was a disappointing one for jewellery demand, with an annual survey by Thomson Reuters finding that jewellery fabrication fell by 38% in India (where it was hit by a new excise duty) and by 17% in China. The Chinese central bank was also a less enthusiastic gold-purchaser than before: net central-bank buying dropped to a seven-year low.

 

去年的珠宝需求令人失望。汤森路透的年度调研显示,在印度,珠宝加工受新消费税的影响而下跌了38%,在中国则下跌了17%。中国央行也不再像以前那样热衷于购入黄金,其黄金净买入跌至七年最低。

 

The big change in the gold market since the turn of the millennium has been the rise of exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which have made it easy for investors to get exposure to the metal without worrying about storing it or insuring it. At the peak, gold ETFs held around 2,500 tonnes of gold, according to Citigroup, worth around $100bn at today’s prices.

 

迈入新千年以来,黄金市场最大的变化是交易所交易基金(ETF)的兴起。它们让投资黄金变得更容易,还令投资者无需担心储存或投保问题。根据花旗集团的数据,在鼎盛期,黄金ETF持有约2500吨黄金,按照今天的价格约值1000亿美元。

 

Gold ETFs were bought as a classic “momentum trade” by investors who try to make money by following trends. Once the price trend changed in 2013, such investors scrambled to get out of the metal. At the moment ETFs hold just 1,800 tonnes.

 

购买黄金ETF是一种典型的“动量交易”,投资者想通过跟随趋势来赚钱。2013年价格趋势突变,这类投资者便争相脱手黄金。当时ETF仅持有1800吨黄金。

 

The problem with gold is that there is no obvious valuation measure. The metal pays no real “earnings”. Although gold is seen as a hedge against inflation, it cannot be relied on to fulfil this function over the medium term; between 1980 and 2001, its price fell by more than 80% in real terms.

 

黄金的问题在于没有明显的估价标准。黄金并不产生真正的“收益”。尽管黄金被视作一种防范通货膨胀的手段,但却无法依靠它在中期实现这一功能;从1980年到2001年,金价按实值计算下跌超过80%。

 

The general rule is that gold is seen as an alternative currency to the dollar, so when the greenback does well, bullion does badly. But this also means that gold’s performance can look rather better in other, weaker currencies. Since the Brexit referendum, for example, bullion is up by 19% in sterling terms. Another factor is real interest rates. When they are high, the opportunity cost of holding gold is also high. Conversely, very low interest rates mean that there seems little to lose by holding gold.

 

一般的规则是将黄金看作美元的替代货币,因此当美元走高时,黄金走低。不过这也意味着以其他较弱货币来计算,黄金的表现可能就相当好。例如,英国脱欧公投以来,黄金以英镑计价上涨了19%。另一个因素是实际利率。当实际利率高时,持有黄金的机会成本也高。反之,很低的利率意味着持有黄金也许不会有什么损失。

 

Those two factors explain why the “Trump trade” was initially not very good for gold. In the immediate aftermath of the election, investors hoped that tax cuts would revive the American economy; this would force the Federal Reserve to push up interest rates and that rate boost would drive the dollar higher. Neither prospect would be good for gold.

 

这两个因素解释了为什么“特朗普交易”最初对黄金并不是很有利。就在选举之后,投资者希望减税会让美国经济复苏;这会迫使美联储加息,而利率提升会把美元推得更高。无论哪方面的预期都对黄金不利。

 

But the Trump trade has lost momentum. The president’s failure to repeal Obamacare has raised doubts about the prospect of a tax-reform programme being passed by Congress. Gold has duly perked up a bit since the start of the year, and the price rose by 1.6% on April 11th. But, although inflation may be a bit higher, nothing suggests a return to the kind of double-digit rates seen in the 1970s, when gold enjoyed a spectacular price rise.

 

但是特朗普交易已经失去了动力。他没能废除奥巴马医改,这让人不禁怀疑国会正审核的税改方案的前景。自今年年初以来,黄金如预期般活跃起来;4月11日,金价上涨1.6%。然而,尽管通胀可能会略微升高,但并没有迹象显示会上涨到上世纪70年代的两位数水平——当时金价上涨惊人。

 

Even so, the metal has not performed as well as it might have done, given the geopolitical headlines. Perhaps this is because Mr Trump has backed away from some of his pre-election threats – on trade with China, for example. The bombing in Syria may turn out to be a one-off, and his statements on North Korea could be “full of sound and fury, signifying nothing”. With the help of advisers such as Rex Tillerson, the secretary of state, and James Mattis, the defence secretary, Mr Trump may turn out to be a more conventional foreign-policy president than expected.

 

即便如此,考虑到地缘政治形势动荡,黄金的表现也没能达到应有的水平。可能是因为特朗普从选战时威胁的政策立场上退让了,对华贸易就是一例。轰炸叙利亚最终可能是一击而止,而他在朝鲜问题上的声明也可能“充满喧嚷与狂怒,却毫无意义”。在国务卿雷克斯·蒂勒森(Rex Tillerson)和国防部长詹姆斯·马蒂斯(James Mattis)等幕僚的辅佐下,特朗普有可能成为一名在外交政策上比预期更保守的总统。

 

So buying bullion is really a bet that things will go spectacularly wrong: that events escalate in the Middle East and North Korea or that central banks lose control of monetary policy. It could happen, of course, but it helps explain why gold bugs tend to be folks with a rather gloomy attitude towards life.

 

因此,购买黄金其实是在赌事态的走向会坏得惊人:中东和朝鲜局势升级,或是央行对货币政策失控。这些当然有可能发生,但这也可以解释为什么黄金信徒往往是对生活态度比较悲观的人。


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