These 10 Countries Are Evolving into Demographic Time Bombs

震惊！人口危机国家排名，中国比欧洲日本要严重的多

 

United States

美国

 

In the United States, the fertility rate has reached a record low of 1.76. The fertility rate in the United States fell to an all-time low last year. Americans’ average life expectancy, meanwhile, sits at a relatively high 78.7 years.

 

去年，美国的生育率已经降到1.76，创下历史新低。美国人均寿命相对较高，为78.7岁。

 

Many experts say the 2008 economic recession and high college tuition are contributing to this trend.

 

许多专家表示，2008年的经济衰退和高额的大学学费是低生育率背后的真正原因。

 

According to a 2018 survey in The New York Times, however, adults who want kids say they sometimes end up having few, or zero, kids due to the high cost of childcare. The average cost of full-time childcare exceeds $10,000 a year in several states, according to Child Care Aware of America.

 

《纽约时报》2018年的一项调查显示，想要孩子的成年人表示因为育儿费用太高，所以没要孩子或者只生育了一两个小孩。根据美国育儿意识机构的数据，在美国的几个州，一年的全日托儿费都超过了1万美元（6.85万元人民币）。

 

The US birth rate has remained below “replacement level” since the 1970s, which means not enough children are being born to keep the population at a steady level.

 

自从上世纪70年代以来，美国的生育率就一直在更替水平之下，这意味着出生的孩子数量无法让人口总量保持稳定。

 

Last year, the US Census Bureau wrote in a paper that women who have kids between the ages of 25 and 35 have more difficulty in getting fair pay than women who give birth outside of that range. American women are now having children older than ever.

 

去年，美国人口普查局在一篇报告中写道，在25岁和35岁之间生育孩子的女性相比在其他年龄段生育的女性更难得到公平的薪酬。现在美国女性的生育年龄高于以往。

 

Spain

西班牙

 

Spain has more deaths than births each year, and some towns are already nearly abandoned.

 

西班牙每年的死亡人数都超过出生人数，一些城镇甚至因人口凋零而被荒废。

 

Spanish women tend to give birth later in life than most other European women, and Spaniards also live longer than anyone else in the European Union. On average, women in Spain have 1.5 children.

 

西班牙女性的生育年龄比多数欧洲女性都更大，而西班牙人的平均寿命又高于其他欧盟公民。在西班牙，女性平均生育1.5个小孩。

 

In Spain’s northeastern Aragon region, one village already shows what a demographic time bomb can look like. The only remaining residents of La Estrella are two people in their 80s.

 

在西班牙东北部的亚拉贡地区，人口定时炸弹的效应已经在一个名为拉埃斯特雷的村庄显现。这个村子最后剩下的两个居民都是八十多岁。

 

Last year, the Spanish government hired a special commissioner to determine how to reverse falling birth rates.

 

去年，西班牙政府任命了一位特别专员来想办法逆转生育率下降的局面。

 

Italy

意大利

 

A rise in immigration to Italy has not helped the country steer clear of becoming a demographic time bomb.

 

意大利移民的增加并没有让这个国家免于人口危机。

 

A record-low 464,000 children were born in Italy last year, and the country’s mean age has surpassed 45 for the first time ever.

 

去年，464000名婴儿在意大利出生，达到历史新低，而意大利人的平均年龄首次超过了45岁。

 

Many Italians want to have two or more children, The Local reported, but cite difficulties in finding employment as a factor in their decisions not to.

 

据《本地人》报道，许多意大利人想要两个以上的小孩，但是因为工作难找而决定放弃。

 

Bulgaria

保加利亚

 

The population of Bulgaria, the European Union’s poorest member, may soon become as low as it was in the aftermath of World War II, Bloomberg reported.

 

据彭博社报道，作为欧盟最穷的成员国，保加利亚的人口很快将变得和二战结束时一样少。

 

Bulgaria’s population is shrinking faster than any other country in the world; it is expected to hit only 5.4 million in 2050, down from 7 million last year, according to Quartz.

 

保加利亚的人口下降速度比世界其他国家都快。据Quartz网站报道，去年保加利亚人口为700万，预计在2050年保加利亚人口将降至540万。

 

In addition, the country has seen an increase in emigration as citizens seek job opportunities elsewhere. Bulgaria’s fertility rate is only 1.46 children per woman.

 

此外，移民国外寻找工作机会的保加利亚人也在增加。在保加利亚，平均每位女性仅生育1.46个孩子。

 

Latvia

拉脱维亚

 

Since Latvia joined the European Union in 2004, nearly 20 percent of the country’s population has left to seek employment in other parts of the bloc, such as Germany and the United Kingdom.

 

自从拉脱维亚于2004年加入欧盟，已有近20%的人口离开本国去德国和英国等其他欧洲国家寻找就业机会。

 

Latvia’s population, reported to be nearly 2 million last year, is estimated to fall to 1.52 million by 2050, according to Quartz.

 

据Quartz网站报道，去年拉脱维亚的人口将近200万，预计在2050年会降至152万。

 

South Korea

韩国

 

The South Korean government has offered cash incentives to people who have more than one child, as the fertility rate currently sits at 1.26 children per woman – too low to maintain a stable population.

 

因为韩国生育率低至1.26，已经无法维持韩国人口的稳定，韩国政府向那些生育一个以上孩子的人提供现金奖励。

 

Amid the declining fertility rates, some South Koreans have said they are not having children due to a lack of financial stability, according to Quartz.

 

韩国生育率一直在下降，据Quartz网站报道，一些韩国人声称自己不要小孩是因为经济不稳定。

 

Demographers say South Korea’s low fertility rate is linked to women having children at an increasingly later age. In 2017, the average age of a Korean woman having a first child surpassed 31. It was the oldest average in the world.

 

人口学家表示，韩国的低生育率和女性生育年龄越来越大有关。2017年，韩国女性生育头胎的平均年龄超过了31岁，为全世界最高。

 

Japan

日本

 

Unlike other countries with similarly low fertility rates, Japan has not seen a significant influx of immigrants. A low number of workers in the country decreases the amount of tax money going toward retirement and healthcare services for older residents, who are growing in numbers.

 

和其他生育率低的国家不同，日本没有大量的移民涌入。劳动人口太少导致用于老年人口的养老和医疗的税金下降，而与此同时老年人口却不断增加。

 

United Kingdom

英国

 

The United Kingdom’s birth rate has fallen to its lowest level in a dozen years, The Times reported. At the same time, the number of British residents age 65 or older is rising due to better healthcare and higher living standards.

 

据《泰晤士报》报道，英国出生率已经降到了十几年来的最低点。与此同时，65岁以上的英国居民的数量却因为医疗条件改善、生活标准提高而不断增加。

 

The UK’s referendum to leave the European Union has led to a decrease in the number of immigrants, who are generally younger, leading to an increasingly older population.

 

英国脱欧导致移民数量下降，而移民人口普遍都比较年轻，使人口老龄化进一步加剧。

 

According to The Guardian, the number of elderly people without social care has peaked, with one in seven lacking adequate support. About 1.4 million residents who are older than 65 are not receiving help with getting up or getting washed.

 

据《卫报》报道，得不到照看的老年人数量已达到一个高峰，其中七分之一缺人照料。约有140万65岁以上的老年人生活起居无人照料。

 

China

中国

 

China’s fertility rate keeps dropping despite the government’s 2016 decision to allow families to have two children instead of one, so local authorities are taking steps to encourage more childbirth.

 

尽管政府在2016年放开了全面二胎，但是中国的生育率还是持续下降，因此地方政府正采取措施鼓励生育。

 

About 25 percent of China’s population is expected to be 60 years or older by 2030, a significant increase compared to the roughly 13 percent of residents who were part of that age bracket in 2010.

 

约25%的中国人口在2030年前将超过60岁，而在2010年只有约13%的中国人口超过60岁。

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