Do We Really Live Longer than Our Ancestors?

我们是否真的比祖先更长寿？

 

Over the last few decades, life expectancy has increased dramatically around the globe. The average person born in 1960, the earliest year the United Nations began keeping global data, could expect to live to 52.5 years of age. Today, the average is 72. In the UK, where records have been kept longer, this trend is even greater. In 1841, a baby girl was expected to live to just 42 years of age, a boy to 40. In 2016, a baby girl could expect to reach 83; a boy, 79.

 

全球人口预期寿命在过去几十年里有了显著增长。1960年联合国第一次统计人口预期寿命，彼时全球人均寿命为52.5岁。时至今日，这个数字已经飙升到了72岁。而在英国这个统计预期寿命历史源远流长的国家，增长率更为惊人：1841年，女性平均寿命为42年，男性为40年。到了2016年，女性平均寿命则达到83岁；而男性则大约是79岁。

 

The natural conclusion is that both the miracles of modern medicine and public health initiatives have helped us live longer than ever before – so much so that we may, in fact, be running out of innovations to extend life further. In September 2018, the Office for National Statistics confirmed that, in the UK at least, life expectancy has stopped increasing. Beyond the UK, these gains are slowing worldwide.

 

不难推断，人们的寿命增加得益于现代医学的奇迹，以及出色的卫生保健措施——甚至有人说，我们可能用尽了所有能够延长寿命的手段。2018年9月，英国国家统计局表示，国民寿命已经停止增长。而在全球范围内，人类寿命增长也在放缓。

 

This belief that our species may have reached the peak of longevity is also reinforced by some myths about our ancestors: it’s common belief that ancient Greeks or Romans would have been flabbergasted to see anyone above the age of 50 or 60, for example.

 

人类平均寿命已经达到顶峰——这一观点甚至能从神话里找到细节佐证：例如古希腊罗马时代，五六十岁的人出街可能会引得路人侧目连连。

 

In fact, while medical advancements have improved many aspects of healthcare, the assumption that human life span has increased dramatically over centuries or millennia is misleading.

 

医学的进步确实使得医疗保健在诸多方面得以改善，但这并不足以说明人类寿命在几百年、甚至几千年内急剧增加。

 

Overall life expectancy, which is the statistic reflected in reports like those above, hasn’t increased so much because we’re living far longer than we used to as a species. It’s increased because more of us, as individuals, are making it that far.

 

上述报告中提到的总体预期寿命其实并没有增加太多。我们之所以能看到数据的增长，不是因为每一个人都活得久了，而是能活得久的人变多了。

 

“There is a basic distinction between life expectancy and life span,” says Stanford University historian Walter Scheidel, a leading scholar of ancient Roman demography. “The life span of humans – opposed to life expectancy, which is a statistical construct – hasn’t really changed much at all, as far as I can tell.”

 

斯坦福大学历史学家谢德尔是古罗马人口学的领军人物，他说：“预期寿命和实际寿命之间存在着根本的区别。预期寿命是一种统计学概念，实际人口寿命与之不同，实际上也没增加多少。”

 

Life expectancy is an average. If you have two children, and one dies before their first birthday but the other lives to the age of 70, their average life expectancy is 35.

 

预期寿命反映的是人口的平均值。如果你有两个孩子，一个孩子刚出生就不幸夭折，另一个孩子活到了70岁，那么他们的平均预期寿命就是35岁。

 

That’s mathematically correct – and it certainly tells us something about the circumstances in which the children were raised. But it doesn’t give us the full picture. It also becomes especially problematic when looking at eras, or in regions, where there are high levels of infant mortality. Most of human history has been blighted by poor survival rates among children, and that continues in various countries today.

 

站在数学角度说，这个数据是对的——我们还能从一定程度上分析这对孩子的家庭背景如何。但只看数据毕竟是管中窥豹。尤其在婴儿死亡率高的时期和地区，这个数据就变得十分不可靠了。历史上人类曾饱受婴儿早夭之苦，而不少国家至今仍没解决这个问题。

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