双语:非洲:寻求普惠增长之路
发布时间:2019年03月05日
发布人:nanyuzi  

非洲:寻求普惠增长之路

The Pursuit of Inclusive Growth in Africa

 

国际货币基金组织副总裁 张涛

Zhang Tao, IMF Deputy Managing Director

 

金砖国家峰会

BRICS Summit

 

2018年7月24日,南非

South Africa, July 24, 2018

 

开场白

Introduction

 

女士们,先生们,下午好。

 

Ladies and gentlemen - good afternoon.

 

我很荣幸来南非参加金砖国家峰会。感谢财新主办这次重要会议,讨论如何稳固实现非洲的包容性增长。

 

It is an honor to be in South Africa for the BRICS Summit. I would like to thank Caixin for hosting this important panel on securing inclusive growth in Africa.

 

非洲是一个拥有无限机遇的大陆。它拥有巨大的人口红利,丰富的自然资源,许多行业都拥有进一步开发的巨大潜力。本地区国家在推动发展方面已经取得长足进步,但仍需继续努力。

 

Africa is a continent that holds immense opportunity. It has a huge demographic dividend, plenty of natural resources, and untapped potential in many sectors. Countries in the region have made considerable progress in development, but the job is not over.

 

发言中我将着重讨论确保可持续发展的优先任务。毫无疑问,非洲的首要经济任务是发展。这意味着进一步提高生活水平,促进包容性增长,以及从合作伙伴获得可持续的融资。

 

In my remarks, I will focus on the priorities for ensuring sustainable development. And, make no mistake, the number one economic priority for Africa is development. This means further improvement in living standards, growth that is inclusive, and sustainable financing from its partners.

 

一、全球背景——经济复苏变得更加不均衡

I. Global context – recovery becoming more uneven

 

首先谈谈全球前景。我们最近发布了世界经济增长预测。

 

Let me start with the global outlook. We recently released our growth forecasts for the world economy.

 

2018年和2019年的全球增长率预计为3.9%,与我们今年4月的预测一致。但经济扩张的均衡程度下降,一些主要发达经济体的增长率似乎已经达到峰值。

 

Global growth is projected at 3.9 percent in 2018 and 2019, in line with our April forecasts. But the expansion is becoming less even, and its rate appears to have peaked in some major advanced economies.

 

美国经济继续快速增长,今年的增长率预计将达到2.9%,2019年为2.7%。然而,欧元区、日本和英国的增长势头弱于我们六个月前的预测。

 

In the United States, growth continues apace at 2.9 percent this year and 2.7 percent in 2019. However, momentum in the euro area, Japan, and the United Kingdom is weaker than we anticipated six months ago.

 

新兴和发展中经济体的增长预计将保持强劲,今年的增长率预计为4.9%,2019年为5.1%。

 

Growth in emerging and developing economies is expected to remain strong at 4.9 percent this year and 5.1 percent in 2019.

 

非洲地区也将继续保持强劲的增长势头。撒哈拉以南非洲的总体增长率预计今年为3.4%,明年将升至3.8%。在许多国家,随着经济增长率超过人口增长率,人均收入将有所提高。

 

Sustained momentum is expected to be seen in this region as well. Overall growth in sub-Saharan Africa is projected at 3.4 percent this year, rising to 3.8 percent next year. With growth rates exceeding those of population, many countries should see increases in per capita incomes.

 

然而,即使在充满活力的新兴经济体中,增长前景也变得更加不均衡。石油价格上涨,贸易紧张局势升级,美国市场收益率提高,新兴市场货币承受市场压力,这些因素都将对经济前景带来挑战。土耳其或阿根廷最近的情况就说明了这一点。

 

Yet even among this dynamic group of emerging economies, growth prospects are becoming more uneven. Rising oil prices, escalating trade tensions, higher yields in the United States, and market pressures on emerging markets’ currencies are challenging the outlook. Think of the recent experience of Turkey or Argentina.

 

这些挑战很可能持续存在,因此我们认为,经济前景面临下行压力,即使在短期内也是如此。贸易紧张局势的加剧可能导致全球复苏进程脱轨,并进一步抑制中期增长。

 

These challenges are likely to persist, and this is why we see rising downside risks to the outlook even in the near term. An escalation in trade tensions can derail the global recovery and further depress medium-term growth.

 

与此同时,金融市场条件仍然宽松,风险溢价依然偏小,一些市场资产价格持续高位运行,同时波动性低。但是,这些情况可能会突然改变。债务较高的国家尤其可能受到全球融资条件收紧的影响。

 

At the same time, financial conditions remain accommodative. Spreads are still compressed, valuations in some markets stretched, and volatility low. However, these conditions can change suddenly. Countries with higher debt could be especially affected by tightening in global financing conditions.

 

显然,对撒哈拉以南非洲地区而言,全球背景带来了挑战性。因此,非洲国家更加迫切需要采取有关政策,巩固最近取得的进展,并为所有人民创造机会。

 

Clearly, the global backdrop is challenging for the sub-Saharan Africa region. This provides more urgency for policies to lock in recent achievements and provide opportunity to all its citizens.

 

二、撒哈拉以南非洲——取得重大进展

II. Sub-Saharan Africa – significant progress

 

在探讨撒哈拉以南非洲地区如何实现更光明的未来之前,让我们先看看本地区已经取得的成就。过去二十年里,本地区在改善经济和社会条件方面取得了重大进展。

 

Before we look at how to secure a brighter future for the region, let’s step back for a moment to see how far it has come. Over the last two decades, the region has made great progress in improving economic and social conditions.

 

例如,本地区的实际人均收入平均增长了50%。特别是,莫桑比克、安哥拉和卢旺达的人均收入翻了一番,埃塞俄比亚的人均收入增长了两倍。这些都是显著的成就。

 

For instance, real per capita incomes have risen 50 percent on average in the region. Importantly, per capita income doubled in Mozambique, Angola and Rwanda, and tripled in Ethiopia. These are remarkable gains.

 

与此同时,婴儿死亡率大幅下降。整个地区每千名活产婴儿死亡数从108下降到了55。安哥拉、马拉维、利比里亚和卢旺达等国的改善程度最大。

 

At the same time, infant mortality rates fell dramatically – from 108 to 55 per 1000 live births for the region as a whole. Countries like Angola, Malawi, Liberia and Rwanda saw the largest improvements.

 

这一期间,各项改革和宏观经济政策的改善为经济增长提供了支持。大宗商品出国的增长还得益于大宗商品价格高涨。另外,贸易和投资的扩大也促进了经济增长。

 

During this period, growth was supported by reforms and improved macroeconomic policies. It also benefited from a boom in commodity prices that helped commodity exporters, and increased trade and investment flows.

 

这些都是重大成就,但仍需付出更多努力。撒哈拉以南非洲地区需要创造持续而强劲的包容性增长,以实现联合国可持续发展目标,并收获人口红利。

 

These are great achievements, yet much more is needed. The region needs to create sustained, strong and inclusive growth to achieve the UN Sustainable Development Goals and reap the demographic dividends.

 

非洲是世界上最年轻的大陆。这既是挑战,也是机遇。

 

Africa is the youngest continent in the world. This is both a challenge and an opportunity.

 

到2035年,达到15—64岁工作年龄的撒哈拉以南非洲人口将超过世界其他地区的总和,使劳动力数量增加1.1亿。在新的市场和投资机会方面,这是一个对本地区和全世界都有潜在重大影响的趋势。

 

By 2035, the number of sub-Saharan Africans reaching working age of 15-64 years will exceed the rest of the world combined – adding about 110 million workers. This is a trend with potentially significant implications for both the region and the world, in terms of new markets and investment opportunities.

 

然而,为充分实现上述人口趋势的潜力,2035年之前需要每年创造2000万个就业岗位。这是2011—2017年每年创造的平均就业岗位数量的两倍。

 

Yet realizing the full potential of these demographic trends means creating 20 million jobs every year through 2035. This is twice the average number of jobs created every year during 2011-2017.

 

三、释放非洲的机遇——未来的道路

III. Unleashing opportunity in Africa – the way forward

 

那么,撒哈拉以南非洲地区如何能够利用其人口潜力,实现可持续发展目标,并创造步伐更快、包容性程度更高的经济增长?

 

So how can the region capitalize on its demographic potential to attain the SDGs and achieve higher and more inclusive growth?

 

我认为,为实现上述目标,有关各方必须秉持多边合作精神。本地区的国家应处理好本国事务,付出自己的努力;发展伙伴则应提供帮助,确保“可持续”的融资来源。

 

In my view, this will require upholding the multilateral spirit of cooperation by all parties involved. Countries in the region should do their part by getting their house in order; and development partners should help by ensuring “sustainable” sources of financing.

 

这在实践中意味着什么呢?对于本地区国家而言,这意味着降低宏观经济脆弱性,提高增长潜力。我认为这方面有两个重要的优先任务,一个是短期的,另一个是长期的。

 

What does this mean in practice? For countries in the region, it means reducing macroeconomic vulnerabilities and raising growth potential. And here I see two important priorities. One for the short term; the other for the long term.

 

第一个优先任务是降低债务脆弱性。这项任务迫在眉睫。过去五年里,公共债务比率大幅上升,从平均相当于GDP的30%上升到目前的50%以上。

 

The first priority is to reduce vulnerabilities from debt. It is urgent. Public debt ratios have increased markedly over the past five years – from an average of 30 percent of GDP to over 50 percent currently.

 

在一些国家,债务的增加是由发展和基础设施需求所致。在另一些国家,是受到2014年石油价格大幅下跌的影响。而在其他一些国家,则是由于表外负债向公共部门的转移。

 

In some countries, the increase in debt is driven by development and infrastructure needs. In other countries, it reflects the impact of the large decline in oil prices in 2014. And in others, it was the migration of off-balance sheet liabilities to the public sector.

 

如果非洲债务不断增长的趋势继续下去,债务上升带来的更高利息成本将导致教育、医疗和基础设施领域的资源流失。

 

If the growing debt trends in Africa continue, rising interest costs from higher debt would divert resources away from education, health and infrastructure.

 

因此,优先任务是降低债务脆弱性。重点应放在提高国内公共收入和改善债务管理等方面。这将为物质和人力资本投资以及公共社会支出创造空间。

 

The priority therefore is to reduce vulnerabilities from debt. The emphasis should be on domestic revenue mobilization and improved debt management. This will create space for investment in physical and human capital and social spending.

 

本地区许多国家的税收征管都有显着改善。在三分之二的国家,税收收入高于GDP的13%这一临界水平,而1995年,这一比例仅为三分之一。然而,税收收入低于GDP 13%的国家仍超过16个。

 

Many countries in the region have seen significant improvements in collections. Tax revenues are above the tipping point of 13 percent of GDP in two-thirds of the countries, compared to just one-third in 1995. Still, this leaves more than 16 countries with less than 13 percent of GDP in tax revenue.

 

与此同时,石油出口国的收入大幅下降,从2012年占GDP的31%降至2016年的18%。显然,需要持续重视提高国内公共收入。

 

At the same time, oil exporters have seen a sharp decline in their revenue intake, from 31 percent of GDP in 2012 to 18 percent in 2016. Clearly, the emphasis on domestic revenue mobilization needs to be sustained.

 

提高长期增长的第二个优先任务是重振私人投资。

 

The second priority to raise long-run growth is to revive private investment.

 

多年来,低水平的私人投资被公共支出所代替。然而,面对日益加剧的公共债务脆弱性,尚不清楚这一趋势能够持续多久。一些国家采取公私合作安排,但这些措施的成功程度不同。

 

For many years, low levels of private investment were offset by public expenditures. Yet, faced with growing public debt vulnerabilities, it is unclear how long this trend can continue. Some countries have pursued public-private partnerships, but these efforts have had varying success.

 

与此同时,中国的“一带一路”倡议和二十国集团的“非洲契约”等倡议为支持私人投资提供了机会。这包括有助于鼓励外国直接投资和支持公私合作关系的制度改革。

 

At the same time, initiatives such as China’s Belt and Road Initiative and the G20 Compact with Africa provide an opportunity to support private investment. This includes institutional reforms that can encourage foreign direct investment and support public-private partnerships.

 

但为了有效实施这些举措,撒哈拉以南非洲国家需要从公共投资向私人投资过渡。为此,需要维持宏观经济稳定,并改善监管和破产框架。另外,应扩大非洲内部贸易,深化信贷获得渠道。

 

But for these initiatives to be effective, sub-Saharan African countries should ensure a transition from public to private investment. This requires maintaining macroeconomic stability and improving regulatory and insolvency frameworks. It also means increasing intra-African trade and deepening access to credit.

 

在普惠金融方面,非洲可以为世界提供重要的经验。我们最近公布了一份文件,综合阐述非洲16个试点国家在实施有关政策扩大信贷获得渠道方面的经验。[1]

 

Here, Africa can offer the world important lessons on financial inclusion. We have recently published a paper that pulls together lessons from 16 pilot countries in Africa on policies to expand access to credit. [1]

 

为促进公共投资向私人投资过渡,还需采用其他不会产生债务的方式为本地区庞大的基础设施需求融资。据非洲开发银行估计,这些需求每年达到1300—1700亿美元。此类融资应能最大限度地降低本地区经济体面临的风险。

 

Facilitating this handover from public to private investment also requires alternative, non-debt creating ways of financing the region’s large infrastructure needs. By some estimates (AfDB), these needs amount to US$130-170 billion per year. Such financing should minimize risks to economies in the region.

 

结语

Conclusion

 

非洲地区在促进私有部门资金投向基础设施方面具有巨大潜力。长期的、不会产生债务的资本投资不仅有助于满足本地区的基础设施需求,还能深化资本市场,进一步促进贸易一体化,并为增量资本提供更高回报。

 

There is tremendous potential to catalyze private funds for infrastructure investment. And longer-term, non-debt creating capital investment will not only help address the infrastructure needs of the region. It will also deepen capital markets, promote further trade integration, and provide significantly higher returns to incremental capital.

 

国际货币基金组织将继续提供政策咨询,开展能力建设,并在必要时提供资金支持,以此支持非洲大陆的发展。我们还将与其他国际金融机构和发展伙伴合作,支持本地区释放人口潜力,实现持续的包容性增长。

 

The IMF will continue to support the continent in these development efforts through policy advice, capacity building, and financial support where needed. We will also collaborate with other international financial institutions and development partners to support the region in realizing its demographic potential, and achieving sustained and more inclusive growth.

 

对非洲和全世界来说,这将是一个巨大的机遇。

 

This would be a huge opportunity – for Africa and the entire world.

 

谢谢各位。

 

Thank you.

 

[1] 国际货币基金组织,2018年,《浅市场的宏观金融联系:非洲部试点国家的经验》,部门文章18/12。

 

[1] IMF 2018. “Macrofinancial Linkages in Shallow Markets: Experience from the African Department’s Pilot Countries”. Departmental Paper 18/12.


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