Robo-Advisers: Does Not Compute

机器人顾问：“算”不起来

The growth of firms selling computer generated financial advice is slowing

一些公司销售计算机生成的理财建议，它们的增长正在减缓

Given the many mistakes that human investors are prone to – selling after a market tumble, trading too often, believing they can beat the stockmarket – dealing with money is perhaps best left to computers. That is the premise behind a host of firms selling computer-generated financial advice, which assist savers tired of paying for pricey human counsel. The low cost of these “robo-advisers” had helped them grow rapidly, to the horror of conventional money-managers. But growth in assets under management (AUM) at the biggest outfits has sagged recently, and with it the upstarts’ prospects.

考虑到人类投资者容易犯许多错误，比如在市场暴跌后卖出、交易太过频繁、相信自己能跑赢股市等等，把钱的事留给计算机处理可能是最好的选择。由此出现了一批公司，它们销售计算机生成的理财建议，为厌倦了付高价给人类顾问的理财客户提供帮助。由于“机器人顾问”成本低廉，这类公司发展迅速，让传统的财富管理公司惊恐不已。但是，最大型机构的资产管理规模增速近来已经下降，后起之秀的前景也随之黯淡。

It used to be only those with hundreds of thousands of dollars to invest, if not millions, who could afford advice about where to put their money. Humans charge 1-3% of their clients’ portfolios every year, simply to rebalance among asset classes every so often and do clever things to minimise taxes. Robo-advisers, led by Wealthfront, a Californian outfit, and Betterment, based in New York, do much the same, but for a mere 0.25% or so a year.

在过去，即便不是百万富翁，也得是手头有几十万美元的人才能请得起理财顾问。人类顾问每年收取相当于客户资产组合1%至3%的费用，所做的只是偶尔重新配置各资产类别、用聪明的法子交最少的税。以加州机构Wealthfront和总部位于纽约的公司Betterment为首的机器人顾问公司所做的事大致相同，但每年只收取总资产0.25% 左右的费用。

Largely because they squash fees, robo-services do a good job for anyone bar the very rich with complex financial arrangements. A basic questionnaire – age, salary, investment aims and the like – helps establish risk appetite. Money is then allocated to low-cost funds provided by third parties. For those who believe, correctly, that fees and human error are the main pitfalls of investing, the approach is hard to beat.

机器人服务主要因为压低了管理费，所以对于任何人来说都算干得不错，除了那些需要复杂财务安排的巨富们。一份基本的问卷包括年龄、收入、投资目标等问题，就可以帮助确定客户的风险偏好，然后把资金配置到第三方提供的低成本基金上。有些人相信费用和人为错误是投资的主要隐患，这是正确的，对于他们来说，其他方式很难与机器人顾问匹敌。

Other features include snazzy smartphone apps (customers tend to be on the younger side), transparent pricing and low or no minimum investment. Wealthfront describes itself as the Charles Schwab of the millennial generation, widening access to investing by cutting costs, just as the discount stockbroker has done for baby-boomers since the 1970s.

其他的特色包括新潮的智能手机应用（客户倾向于年轻化）、定价透明，以及起投门槛很低或者完全没有。Wealthfront形容自己是千禧一代的嘉信理财（Charles Schwab），通过削减成本降低投资门槛，正如20世纪70年代折扣经纪人为婴儿潮一代所做的一样。

But being very cheap means Betterment and Wealthfront need lots of assets to turn a profit. Their AUM of roughly $2.9 billion each, accumulated largely in the past two years, delivers revenues of $7m or so a year. That is not enough to sustain around 100 staff each as well as hefty marketing budgets. Total costs are likely to be $40m-50m a year, according to one fintech grandee (neither firm discloses the data).

但是，收费很低意味着Betterment和Wealthfront需要管理大量资产才能盈利。这两家公司的资产管理规模各为约29亿美元，大部分是过去两年中积累的，一年产生700万美元左右的收入。这不足以负担每家公司约100名员工的人力成本，还有高昂的营销预算。据一位金融技术达人说，总成本可能达一年四千万到五千万美元（两家公司均未公布数据）。

Scale is vital, as every new client brings fresh revenue at little extra cost. AUM in the tens of billions of dollars, if not hundreds, will be needed to break even. The two firms’ venture-capital backers, which have poured over $100m into each, expect initial losses. But even they will hope for profits in years, not decades.

 

规模至关重要，因为每一位新客户会带来新收入，而产生的额外成本极低。若要收支平衡，即便不要数千亿美元，也需要数百亿美元的资产管理规模。这两家公司的风险投资人已向每家投入超过1亿美元，并做好了初期会亏损的准备。但即便如此，他们也希望在几年内就能盈利，而不是几十年。

Last year the two firms’ AUM grew by over 10% a month, so doubling every seven months. Growth has since fallen to less than 5%. Wealthfront used to trumpet its AUM, but now reveals it only in regulatory filings. In August it was $2.6 billion; assuming it is now $2.9 billion (it says only that it is less than $3 billion), it will take a year and a half to double at its recent rate of growth. Betterment is faring only slightly better.

去年这两家公司的资产管理规模每月增长超过10%，每7个月翻一番。之后增长率降至5%以下。Wealthfront以前常大肆宣扬自己的资产管理规模，但现在只在给监管部门的备案中才会透露。8月其资产管理规模为26亿美元；假设现在是29亿美元（公司只说不到30亿美元），按照最近的增长速度，翻番需要一年半的时间。Betterment的发展也只是稍好一点。

Adam Nash, Wealthfront’s boss, says AUM is a misleading measure, as it is affected by asset-price swings, such as the stockmarket slide of the late summer (largely reversed since). It might be that volatility has spooked potential investors. Both firms say customers are joining in big numbers, and that AUM will grow with their savings.

Wealthfront的老板亚当·纳什（Adam Nash）称资产管理规模是一个有误导性的指标，因为它受到资产价格波动的影响，比如夏末的股市下跌（之后已基本反弹）。可能是波动性吓坏了潜在的投资者。两家公司都说现在有大量新客户加入，而资产管理规模将随着他们的积蓄增加而扩大。

Competition from incumbent wealth managers will have hurt the robotic duo. Vanguard (which puts together many of the funds Betterment and Wealthfront recommend to clients) and Schwab have both recently launched robo-advisory services. These have grown quickly – Schwab’s now has $4.1 billion in AUM – if only by poaching existing customers. Robo-purists decry potential conflicts of interest.

来自传统财富管理公司的竞争将伤害到这两家机器人公司。领航集团（Vanguard）（集合了Betterment和Wealthfront推荐给客户的多支基金）和嘉信最近都推出了机器人咨询服务。仅仅通过迁徙现有客户，它们的业务已在迅猛增长：嘉信目前的资产管理规模为41亿美元。机器人纯化论者强烈反对潜在的利益冲突。

In dollar terms, both Betterment and Wealthfront are still attracting over $100m a month – it is the second $100m that is proving elusive. Yet fintech firms usually count on their custom growing at exponential, not arithmetic, rates. If AUM growth does not pick up, both firms will have to raise prices, expand their offerings or put themselves up for sale. In August BlackRock, a giant asset manager, bought FutureAdvisor, a smaller robo-rival. That robots of the sort devised by Betterment and Wealthfront will direct an ever-larger chunk of investors’ cash seems inevitable. Whether such products can be sold profitably by startups remains in doubt.

以美元计，Betterment和Wealthfront每月仍在吸引超过1亿美元，但第二个1亿美元才是困难所在。然而，金融技术公司通常都指望它们的客户以指数级而非算术级增长。如果资产管理规模的增速不回升，两家公司都将不得不提高价格、拓宽产品服务或寻求买家。8月，资产管理巨头贝莱德集团（BlackRock）收购了一家较小的机器人对手FutureAdvisor。看来可以肯定的是，由Betterment和Wealthfront发明的这些机器人顾问将管理投资者资金中越来越大的一块。但创业公司能否在这类产品上盈利则仍旧存疑。

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