Business in Africa: Making Africa Work

非洲商业：让非洲发展起来

 

The continent’s future depends on people, not commodities

非洲的前途依赖人，而非大宗商品

 

“Is anyone here actually hoping to make any money, or are you all just trying to minimise your losses?” The question, asked at a dinner in London for investors who specialise in Africa, showed how the mood has changed in the past year. The financiers around the table – mostly holders of African bonds – all said they were simply trying not to lose money.

 

“在座的有没有任何人希望能赚到钱，还是大家都只是想把损失降到最低？”这个问题在伦敦一个为专事非洲投资的投资者举办的晚餐会上提出来，体现出过去一年的情绪变化。在座的各位金融家大部分手中都持有非洲债券，他们都说自己只是想不要亏钱。

 

Only a few years ago people were queuing up to invest in Africa. As recently as 2012 Zambia paid less than Spain to borrow dollars. Private-equity funds dedicated to Africa raised record sums to invest in shopping malls and firms making everything from nappies to fruit juice. Businessfolk salivated at the prospect of selling to the fast-growing African middle class, which by one measure numbered 350m people. Miners sank billions into African soil to feed China’s appetite for minerals.

 

然而仅仅在几年前，大家都还挤破头要在非洲投资。就在2012年，赞比亚美元贷款的利息比西班牙还低。专注投资非洲的私募股权基金筹得破纪录的资金用于投资购物中心和企业，这些公司生产的产品从尿片到果汁一应俱全。非洲的中产阶级正在快速成长，一项数据显示其人数可达3.5亿，商界人士一想到这些人是他们未来的销售对象便垂涎三尺。矿产公司也向非洲的土地中砸入数十亿美元以满足中国对矿产资源的需求。

 

Now investors are glum. In the short run, they are right to worry. In the long run, as our special report on African business shows this week, the potential rewards from a market of 1.2 billion people are too juicy to ignore, despite the risks.

 

但现在投资者们个个愁容满面。短期来看，他们确实有理由担心。长期来说，我们本周对非洲经济的特别报道显示，这个有着12亿人口的市场潜在回报巨大不容忽视，尽管风险也不小。

 

From oil in the gears to sand in the wheels

从一路顺风到磕磕绊绊

 

For decades, sentiment about Africa has followed commodity prices, rising and falling like a bungee-jumper at Victoria Falls. The recent plunge has caused a 16% drop in sub-Saharan Africa’s terms of trade (the ratio of the price of its exports to that of its imports). Growth across the region will slow to about 3% this year, predicts the World Bank, down from 7-8% a decade ago. That is barely ahead of population growth of 2.7%. Nigeria and Angola, two big oil exporters, will probably need bail-outs from the IMF within a year.

 

数十年来，对非洲的投资情绪一直随大宗商品价格波动，如同在维多利亚瀑布蹦极跳一样忽上忽下。最近大宗商品价格大跌已令撒哈拉以南非洲的贸易比率（出口商品与进口商品价格的相对价格比率）下降了16%。世界银行估计整个地区今年的经济增长将会从十年前的7%到8%放缓至3%，勉强高于2.7%的人口增幅。石油出口大国尼日利亚和安哥拉恐怕年内就会需要IMF的紧急救助。

 

Yet Afro-pessimists should remember two things about commodity busts. They don’t last for ever. And they don’t hurt everyone: 17 African countries with a quarter of the region’s population will show a net benefit from the current one, thanks to cheaper energy. More important, by focusing on the minerals markets it is easy to miss some big trends that are happening above ground – and these are mostly positive.

 

然而对非洲持悲观情绪的人们就大宗商品价格大跌的问题需要记住两点：第一，价格不会永远下跌；第二，不是所有人都从中受害。由于能源价格低廉，非洲有17个国家（占非洲总人口四分之一）将会在这一轮大跌的情况下获得净收益。更为重要的是，过于关注矿产品市场会容易忽略矿产行业以外的一些大趋势——而这些趋势多数都令人乐观。

 

The first is that Africa is far more peaceful than it was even a decade ago. The wars that ripped apart the Democratic Republic of Congo and sucked in its neighbours, causing millions of deaths, have largely been quelled. A few states, such as Somalia, South Sudan and the Central African Republic, are in chaos. But overall the risk of dying violently in Africa has tumbled. The latest ranking of the world’s most violent countries by the Geneva Declaration includes just two African states (tiny Lesotho and Swaziland) among its top ten.

 

首先，非洲要比十年前太平多了。内战曾一度令刚果民主共和国四分五裂，且波及多个邻国，令数百万人丧生。如今，战火已基本平息。还有一些国家，如索马里、南苏丹和中非共和国，仍然处于混乱之中，但总体来说在非洲死于暴乱的危险已大为降低。《日内瓦宣言》最近列出的十个暴力情况最为严重的国家中，只有两个是非洲国家（小国莱索托和斯威士兰）。

 

Africa is also far more democratic than it was. In the 1960s, 1970s and 1980s, only one sub-Saharan government was peacefully voted out of office. Now nearly all face regular elections, which are harder to rig thanks to social media. Voters have real choices – one reason why policies have improved.

 

其二，非洲如今也更为民主了。在上世纪六十、七十和八十年代，在撒哈拉以南非洲只有一个政府通过投票和平下台。现在几乎各国都会定期选举，而且在社交媒体的监督下，操纵选举愈发困难。选民们有了真正的选择——这也是政策有所改善的一个重要原因。

 

Old-style governments favoured nationalisation, printing money and (in some cases) rounding peasants up at gunpoint and forcing them onto collective farms. Small wonder Africa grew poorer between 1980 and 2000. Now inflation has largely been tamed, most central banks are islands of excellence and many ministers boast of cutting red tape. Five of the ten fastest reformers in the World Bank’s latest report on the ease of doing business are African. Better government has led to better results. The proportion of Africans living in absolute poverty has fallen from 58% to 41% since 2000. In that time primary-school enrolment has risen from 60% to 80%. Annual malaria deaths have fallen by more than 60%.

 

老派的政府喜欢国有化、印制钞票和（在有些情况下）用枪杆逼着农民加入集体农场。难怪在1980至2000年期间，非洲变得更穷了。现在，通货膨胀已经得到了极大遏制，大多数央行表现卓越，很多部长级高官都以简化政府流程为夸耀的资本。世界银行最近一次的营商便利度报告中，十个改进速度最快的国家中有五个都在非洲。更好的政府带来了更好的发展。非洲的赤贫人口占比已从2000年的58%下降至41%，同期的小学入学率从60%升至80%。每年因疟疾致死的人数已经下降了超过60%。

 

Pessimists fret that much of this progress will reverse now that Africa faces economic headwinds. There are some worrying signs. Leaders once hailed as democrats are amending constitutions to escape term limits. In Congo, Joseph Kabila’s efforts to cling to power risk restarting a civil war, as the president of neighbouring Burundi already has. The continent’s two biggest economies are making needless and costly policy errors. Nigeria is trying to prop up its overvalued currency by, in effect, banning imports. Instead it is driving up inflation. South Africa, meanwhile, has prompted capital flight and brought economic growth to a halt by keeping in power a president who was found to have breached the constitution and on whose watch corruption has flourished.

 

持悲观态度的投资者担心非洲经济遇到强劲逆风，大多所取得的进步都会倒退。现在也的确有一些令人担忧的征兆。一些曾被尊为民主主义者的领导人们正在试图修改宪法以突破任期限制。在刚果，约瑟夫·卡比拉（Joseph Kabila）对权力撒手不放，有可能会再次引发内战，邻国布隆迪的总统就是前车之鉴。非洲两个最大的经济体在政策方面正在犯下不必要且成本高昂的错误。尼日利亚实际上在试图通过禁止进口来支撑其估值过高的货币，然而事与愿违，这反而推高了国内的通货膨胀。同时，南非因保留了已被发现违宪且纵容腐败的总统，导致资本外逃，经济停滞。

 

But massive missteps like these are now the exception rather than the rule. Most countries in Africa are following sound economic policies, controlling government deficits and keeping inflation in check. Dig beneath the headlines, and even in countries that are making big errors there is momentum for reform: in South Africa once-taboo policies such as privatisation are back on the table, and in Nigeria the government is clamping down on corruption and trimming a bloated civil service. Ethiopia is sucking in foreign investment, and smaller economies such as Ivory Coast and Rwanda are growing rapidly after making it easier to do business.

 

然而这种弥天大错仅仅是例外，并不具有普遍性。非洲大部分国家都在遵循明智的经济发展政策，控制政府赤字，遏制通货膨胀。深挖到新闻头条背后就会发现，即使在犯下大错的国家，仍然有着改革的动力：在南非，如私有化等政策不再是禁忌，又重新得以讨论；在尼日利亚，政府正在打击腐败，精简庞大的公务员队伍；埃塞俄比亚正在吸收外资；而一些小经济体，如科特迪瓦和卢旺达，在改善营商环境之后增长迅速。

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