Pulp Producers in Brazil: Money That Grows on Trees

巴西纸浆生产商：摇钱树

 

Brazil’s economy is crumbling but its giant pulp firms are booming

巴西经济岌岌可危，其大型纸浆企业却欣欣向荣

 

Look north from atop the 120-metre (390-foot) bleaching tower at the Horizonte 1 pulp mill, and all you see is plantations of tall, slender eucalyptus trees. They stretch from the factory gate, across the gentle undulations of Mato Grosso do Sul, a state in Brazil’s centre-west, all the way to the horizon. “That’s our competitive advantage,” explains Alexandre Figueiredo, who is in charge of production at the plant. Its owner, Fibria, is the world’s biggest producer of “short-fibre” cellulose pulp, which is used to make such things as newsprint, nappies and banknotes. (“Long-fibre” is used for high-grade paper and packaging.)

 

从奥里藏特一号纸浆厂（Horizonte 1）那120米高的漂白塔顶往北看去，目力所及全是林场，种满了高大修长的桉树，从工厂门口，跨越南马托格罗索州（Mato Grosso do Sul，位于巴西中西部）连绵起伏的地势，直至天际。“那是我们的竞争优势。” 工厂的生产主管亚历山大·菲格雷多（Alexandre Figueiredo）解释道。拥有该工厂的Fibria公司是“短纤维”纤维素纸浆的全球最大生产商，这类纸浆用于制造新闻纸、纸尿布及钞票等。（“长纤维”纸浆则用于制造高档纸张及包装纸品。）

 

As its name suggests, Mato Grosso do Sul (roughly, “southern thick bush” in Portuguese) has vast expanses of cerrado, or tropical savannah, a chunk of which was long ago turned into farmland, some of which has more recently been planted with eucalyptus. Most of Fibria’s 568,000 hectares of plantations lie within 200km of its mills. Eldorado, a rival with a mill on the other side of Três Lagoas (a city of 115,000 that is fast becoming Brazil’s cellulose cluster), needs its lorries to drive only a bit farther. No other firm in the world has such ready access to its raw material. Add the balmy climate and rich soils of Brazil’s south and centre-west – where, as Joe Bormann of Fitch, a credit-rating agency, puts it, eucalyptus “grows like a weed” – and it is easy to see how Brazil has conquered 40% of the global short-fibre market.

 

南马托格罗索州（在葡语中大致意为“南部茂林”）地如其名，拥有辽阔的热带稀树草原，其中一大片在很早以前已开垦为农田，另一些则在近年来种上了桉树。Fibria坐拥56.8万公顷的林场，大多在其工厂200公里范围内。其对手埃尔多拉多集团（Eldorado）的一家纸浆厂位于特雷斯拉瓜斯（Três Lagoas，人口11.5万，正快速成为巴西的纤维素纸浆制造中心）的另一头，但其货车也只需跑远一点点。能如此近距离获取原材料，世界各地的其他公司难出其右。加上巴西南部及中西部气候和煦，土壤肥沃，如信用评级机构惠誉的乔·鲍曼（Joe Bormann）所说，桉树“像野草般疯生”，就不难明白巴西如何征服了全球短纤维纸浆市场40%的份额。

 

Investment in technology is paying off, too. In the late 1990s Brazilians introduced a fast-growing eucalyptus variety that can be harvested after just seven years, compared with the two decades or more it takes to grow pine, the main source of cellulose pulp in the northern hemisphere. Next door to Horizonte 1, Fibria is building a high-tech nursery with technology devised by Dutch flower growers. Eldorado pioneered the use of drones to map the topography of its woods and optimise planting and harvesting.

 

技术上的投资也有回报。上世纪90年代末巴西人引进了一种只需种植七年便可采伐的速生桉树品种，相比之下，在北半球，纤维素纸浆的主要来源是松树，至少需要生长二十年才能成材。在奥里藏特一号纸浆厂旁，Fibria正在兴建一座高科技苗圃，应用荷兰花农发明的技术。埃尔多拉多集团则率先利用无人机测绘林场地形，优化栽种及采伐。

 

Pulp producers are also thriving thanks to the storm that is sucking life out of much of the rest of Brazil’s economy. From his vantage-point, Mr Figueiredo waves towards the only clearing in the arboreal landscape: an unfinished Petrobras fertiliser plant a few kilometres away. Construction stopped in 2014, when the state-controlled oil giant emerged as the locus of a multibillion-dollar bribery scandal that may yet topple Brazil’s government. That is in stark contrast to the frenetic activity directly below him, where a second, 8.7 billion reais ($2.4 billion) production line is taking shape that will more than double Horizonte 1’s current annual capacity of 1.3m tonnes, once it is completed in late 2017.

 

纸浆生产商的蓬勃发展也得益于大范围重创巴西经济的那场风暴。菲格雷多居高临下，挥手指向林中唯一一块空地：几公里外，那是巴西石油公司（Petrobras）一座未完工的化肥厂所在地。工程在2014年中断，当时这一国营石油巨头卷入数十亿美元的贿赂丑闻，事件可能导致巴西政府倒台。那与菲格雷多脚下热火朝天之势形成了鲜明对比，在这里，价值87亿雷亚尔（24亿美元）的第二条生产线已见雏形，到2017年底完工后，奥里藏特一号纸浆厂的产能将在目前130万吨的基础上翻一倍还多。

 

Recession and political upheaval have brought Brazil’s currency, the real, down by three-fifths against the dollar since 2011. That is a boon to pulp producers, who export nearly all their output. Standard & Poor’s, another rating agency, reckons that production costs in dollars dropped by $50 per tonne in 2015; another $40 per tonne was saved on maintaining mills. UBS, a bank, calculates that for every 10-centavo decline against the greenback, Brazilian producers’ earnings rise by $15 per tonne.

 

由于经济衰退和政局动荡，自2011年来巴西雷亚尔兑美元汇率下降了五分之三。对于产出几乎全部用于出口的纸浆制造商来说，这是件好事。另一评级机构标准普尔估计，2015年，按美元计算，每吨纸浆的生产成本下降了50美元；而纸浆厂的维护成本则每吨节省了40美元。据瑞银计算，雷亚尔兑美元每下跌10分（Centavo，100分等于1雷亚尔），巴西生产商每吨盈利就上升15美元。

 

As the real has tumbled, global pulp prices have held steady, whereas some of the other commodities Brazil produces have slumped. As it rebalances from investment to consumption, China may build fewer bridges, hurting Brazilian iron-ore exports. But the Chinese are buying more bog roll; and over 40% of Brazilian pulp producers’ output is turned into tissue for the Chinese market. Between 2013 and 2023 annual toilet-paper sales will grow by 7.4m tonnes, with China accounting for nearly half of the rise, according to RISI, a consulting firm.

 

雷亚尔下跌之际，全球纸浆价格却走势平稳，而巴西生产的其他大宗商品则部分出现了价格下滑。随着中国经济从投资驱动向消费主导转型，桥梁建设可能减少，巴西铁矿石的出口因而受损。但中国人购买卫生纸的数量却在上升；巴西纸浆厂商的产出有超过40%最终被制成了中国市场上的卫生纸品。据咨询公司RISI估计，2013年至2023年，卫生纸年销量将增加740万吨，增幅的近一半来自中国。

 

The combination of a cheap currency and healthy demand has pushed Brazilian producers’ margins to mouth-watering levels. Fibria’s rose to 53%, on record revenues of 10.1 billion reais, last year. With earnings equal to 75% of revenues in the fourth quarter of 2015, Eldorado’s margins set an all-time industry high. This helped ease its debt burden, which remains large compared with rivals’. Klabin and Suzano, two other big Brazilian firms, also had a good year, even if, as integrated producers of both pulp and its products, their mostly domestic papermaking businesses suffered in line with Brazil’s economy.

 

廉价的货币加上良好的需求将巴西生产商的利润推高至令人垂涎的水平。Fibria公司去年营收创纪录，达101亿雷亚尔，利润率升至53%。埃尔多拉多集团2015年第四季度盈利达营收的75%，利润率创下行业新高。这有助缓解其债务负担，但集团的负债水平仍高于对手企业。巴西另外两家大企业克拉宾（Klabin）和苏扎诺（Suzano）也年景不错，但作为纸浆及纸浆制品的综合制造商，它们主要依赖国内市场的纸制品业务随着巴西经济下滑蒙受了一定损失。

 

Can it last? Overcapacity is one worry. Last May CMPC, a Chilean concern, fired up a plant in Rio Grande do Sul state in southern Brazil that will churn out 1.3m tonnes of pulp a year. This month Klabin produced the first bales at a 1.5m-tonne plant in nearby Paraná state. Eldorado is breaking ground on its own expansion project in Três Lagoas, which could add another 2.3m tonnes to annual output. And that is just Brazil. Global capacity is poised to grow by 2.7m tonnes this year alone, estimates UBS; demand by just 1.5m tonnes. That will surely weigh on prices eventually. And the real has recently begun to pick up, as markets bet on a change of government and thus an end to Brazil’s political and economic paralysis.

 

好景是否能持续？产能过剩是一大忧虑。去年五月，智利企业集团CMPC投资在巴西南部的南里奥格兰德州（Rio Grande do Sul）兴建纸浆厂，年产量预计达130万吨。本月，克拉宾集团在附近巴拉那州（Paraná）兴建的年产量150万吨的纸浆厂正式投产。埃尔多拉多公司在特雷斯拉瓜斯对现有厂房的扩建计划也破土动工，年产量将增加230万吨。而这只是巴西的情况。据瑞银估计，单单今年，纸浆业的全球产能就将增加270万吨；需求增幅则仅为150万吨。这最终必然会打压价格。而且由于最近市场估计巴西政府将更迭，并为国内政治及经济困境划上句号，雷亚尔已开始回升。

 

Brazilian pulp bosses nevertheless seem chipper. If pulp prices fall, older, high-cost producers, mainly in the northern hemisphere, may go out of business, reducing any excess capacity. In the long run, demand for tissue can only grow. As Marcelo Castelli, Fibria’s boss, observes, the average Chinese still uses just over 5kg of it a year; in developed countries the figure is 10-20kg.

 

巴西纸浆业的老板们却似乎仍旧乐观。假如纸浆价格下跌，主要位于北半球的那些相对老旧及高成本的生产商可能会破产，过剩的产能因而会减少。而长远来看，对卫生纸的需求只会有增无减。据Fibria总裁马塞洛·卡斯泰利（Marcelo Castelli）观察，中国人均年卫生纸用量仅刚过5公斤；而在发达国家该数字为10至20公斤。

 

As for the currency, Eldorado’s boss, José Carlos Grubisich, notes that the industry survived a rate of 1.6 reais to the dollar five years ago. With the exchange rate now around 3.6, there is a long way to go before it begins to hurt. Even the rich world’s falling demand for printing and writing paper is not such a worry: it means there is less used paper for recycling, which should in turn shore up demand for “primary” pulp.

 

至于货币，埃尔多拉多公司的老板何塞·卡洛斯·古比西克（José Carlos Grubisich）指出，五年前雷亚尔兑美元汇率为1.6时，纸浆业也挺了过来。如今的汇率约为3.6，距离造成伤害还很远。即使富裕国家对打印及书写纸张的需求下降，也无须担心：这意味着供回收利用的废纸减少，按道理将推高对“原生”纸浆的需求。

 

Though Brazil’s pulp industry is booming, it is on the lookout for new uses for its eucalyptus timber, from biofuels to green substitutes for plastics. In the past few years Fibria has bought stakes in several startups with promising technology, including one in Canada. It is sizing up two more. “Money can grow on trees,” Mr Castelli promises. “It just takes time.”

 

尽管巴西纸浆业一片繁荣，但业界已在为桉树开拓新用途，从生物燃料到塑料的绿色替代品等。过去几年，Fibria已投资多家技术前景看好的创业公司，包括一家加拿大公司，而且正在评估另外两家。“树上可以长钱，” 卡斯泰利夸口说道，“只是要花点时间。”

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