双语:加倍努力满足低收入国家的疫情后复苏需要
发布时间:2021年11月02日
发布人:nanyuzi  

Stepping Up to Meet Low-Income Countries’ Pandemic Recovery Needs

加倍努力满足低收入国家的疫情后复苏需要

 

By Christian Mumssen and Seán Nolan

克里斯蒂安·穆森 肖恩·诺兰

 

26 July 2021

2021年7月26日

 

Low-income countries have been hard hit by the pandemic. Their large financing needs are only likely to grow as they deal with the crisis and its economic aftermath. The IMF has approved a far-reaching package of support that would expand their access to financial assistance at zero-interest rates, while providing stronger safeguards against taking on debt they cannot handle. For these efforts to succeed, economically stronger member countries will have to play their part.

新冠疫情对低收入国家造成了沉重打击。这些国家的融资需求本就十分巨大,而在其应对当前危机及其经济影响中,这些融资需求只会进一步增加。IMF已经批准了一揽子影响深远的支持计划,其将使低收入国家有能力以零利率获得更多的资金支持;同时,其也将提供更有力的保障,防止低收入国家背负无法偿还的债务。为确保这些举措取得成功,经济实力较强的成员国必须发挥应有的作用。

 

A rapid, unprecedented response

迅速出台空前的应对措施

 

The pandemic has dealt a severe blow to the economies of many low-income countries: output growth stopped or reversed, living standards declined, poverty increased, and a decade of solid progress is now threatened.

疫情对许多低收入国家的经济造成了沉重打击:这些国家的产出增长陷于停滞甚至有所降低,生活水平下降,贫困率上升,其在过去十年中取得的坚实进展正面临着威胁。

 

The IMF responded with unprecedented speed and scale. Financial assistance to 50 low-income countries reached $13 billion in 2020 compared to an average of $2 billion a year pre-pandemic: a more than sixfold increase. It also provided $739 million in grant-based debt service relief to 29 of its poorest and most vulnerable members.

IMF以空前的速度和规模做出了响应。2020年,IMF为50个低收入国家提供了130亿美元的资金援助,这是疫情暴发前年均20亿美元资金援助规模的六倍以上。IMF还以赠款形式,为29个最贫穷、脆弱的成员国提供了7.39亿美元的债务减免。

 

Three-quarters of the new lending came from the Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust (PRGT) – the IMF’s vehicle for zero-interest loans to low-income countries. The lion’s share was in the form of emergency disbursements with limited conditionality focused on ensuring transparent use of the resources to address pandemic-related needs.

四分之三的新增贷款来自“减贫和增长信托基金”(PRGT)——这是IMF向低收入国家提供零息贷款的工具。其中,最大的一部分贷款是附加有限条件的紧急拨付,这些条件侧重于确保透明地使用资源,以满足疫情的相关需要。

 

As they entered the pandemic with limited financial means, IMF assistance was crucial for many low-income countries to support lives and livelihoods.

很多低收入国家在疫情暴发时的财政空间有限,因此,IMF的援助对帮助它们挽救生命和支持生计至关重要。

 

Far-reaching reform

影响深远的改革

 

Looking ahead, low-income countries will continue to require exceptional levels of external financial support as they recover from the pandemic, and boost investment to build more resilient and inclusive economies.

展望未来,低收入国家将继续需要超常规水平的外部资金支持来帮助它们从疫情中复苏,增加投资来建设更具韧性、更加包容的未来经济。

 

Against this backdrop, the IMF has approved a package of far-reaching reforms to the PRGT to allow it to better respond to the financing needs of low-income countries over the next few years. These include:

在这一背景之下,IMF批准了一揽子针对PRGT的意义深远的改革计划,使之能更好满足低收入国家未来几年的融资需要。这些改革计划包括:

 

Increased access to concessional financing for all low-income countries. Limits on normal access to PRGT resources have been raised by 45 percent. Uncapped access to concessional financing for the poorest countries. Access to concessional financing will no longer be subject to maximum levels for poorer countries with strong economic programs that meet the criteria for obtaining above-normal access levels.

增加所有低收入国家可获得的融资额度。将各国获取PRGT资源的正常额度上限提高了45%。为最贫穷国家提供无限制的优惠融资额度。较贫穷的国家如果正在实施有力的经济规划,且其有资格获得高于正常额度的优惠融资,则这些国家的优惠融资额度将不设上限

 

Retention of zero interest rates for all PRGT facilities. Interest rates on all PRGT loans, reviewed every two years, will be kept at zero until July 2023. Reinforced safeguards to protect low-income countries from over-indebtedness. High borrowing levels, even on concessional terms, can push countries into unsustainable debt positions; IMF program design will pay added attention to the debt levels of countries at risk. With a challenging road to recovery ahead, we project that demand for IMF support will remain elevated. Total IMF lending to low-income countries is projected to reach around $48 billion during the pandemic and its immediate aftermath. PRGT credit outstanding could peak at $32 billion in 2025-26 (chart, black line). However, there are significant uncertainties around the timing and strength of economic recovery, and the possible demand for Fund concessional support (blue shaded area).

所有PRGT工具保持零利率。在2023年7月之前,所有PRGT贷款(其利率每两年审查一次)都将保持零利率。加强保障措施,防止低收入国家过度负债。即使在优惠条件下,高债务水平也可能导致相关国家的债务陷入不可持续的状况;IMF在设计规划时将格外关注面临风险国家的债务水平。鉴于复苏之路充满挑战,我们预计对IMF援助的需求仍将保持在较高水平。我们预计,在疫情期间以及疫情后的较短时期内,IMF对低收入国家的贷款总额将达到480亿美元左右。2025至2026年,PRGT的未偿贷款规模可能达到320亿美元的峰值(见图中黑线)。不过,经济复苏的时点和强度,以及有关国家对IMF优惠贷款支持的潜在需求(蓝色阴影区域),仍存在巨大的不确定性。

 

But IMF loans will only meet a fraction of the external financing needs of low-income countries. Bilateral donors and multilateral development agencies must also step up to play their part, both through bilateral aid, and support for the IMF’s fund-raising efforts. Moreover, if low-income countries are to maintain sustainable levels of debt, much of that financing will have to come through grants and highly concessional lending.

不过,IMF的贷款仅能满足低收入国家的一小部分外部融资需求。双边捐助方和多边开发机构也必须加倍努力,通过双边援助和支持IMF的筹资举措,进一步发挥其各自作用。此外,如果低收入国家想要维持债务的可持续,很大一部分融资必须通过赠款和高度优惠的贷款来实现。

 

A two-stage funding strategy

两阶段融资战略

 

Alongside the greater access to financing, the IMF has also approved a two-stage funding strategy to cover the cost of pandemic-related lending, and ensure the financial sustainability of its concessional support. In the first stage, the Fund aims to mobilize a further $18 billion in PRGT loan resources and $3.3 billion in new bilateral contributions for subsidy resources to allow continued lending through the PRGT at zero interest rates. Donors will be offered various, flexible mechanisms for providing subsidy resources. This will be complemented by use of IMF internal resources of about $0.7 billion. In the second stage of the strategy, in 2024/25 – by which time current economic uncertainties are expected to have receded – the IMF will decide on the size of the PRGT and associated funding mechanisms for the long term. Use of existing and new SDRs is expected to facilitate the funding effort.

在扩大融资渠道的同时,IMF还批准了一项分两阶段的融资战略,以覆盖疫情相关的贷款费用,确保其优惠贷款援助在财务上的可持续性。在第一阶段,IMF的目标是再筹集180亿美元的PRGT贷款资源,并寻求33亿美元的新增双边捐款作为补充资源,以便能继续通过PRGT以零利率发放贷款。IMF将为捐助方提供各种灵活机制来提供补充资源。此外,IMF还将动用大约7亿美元的内部资源,作为对上述安排的补充。在该战略的第二阶段,到2024/2025年(预计届时经济形势将趋于明朗),IMF将确定PRGT的规模以及相关的长期融资机制。使用现有及新增的特别提款权,预计将有助于以上融资举措。

 

The IMF continues to step up its response to the unprecedented and persistent needs of low-income countries. The result is greater access to financing and a long-term vision for its concessional lending. It has also opened the door for donors to play their part. The sums required may sound large, but the cost of doing nothing – paid with human lives and livelihoods – will be far larger.

在响应低收入国家空前且持久的需求方面,IMF将继续加倍努力。通过这些努力,我们将扩大有关国家的融资渠道,并为IMF的优惠贷款工作提供一个长期的视野。其也为捐助方发挥自身作用敞开了大门。我们需要的融资规模听起来可能很大,但不作为的代价比这要大得多——尤其这将以人的生命和生计为代价。