The Impact on Industry: Selling Rides, Not Cars

对行业的冲击：卖的是车票，不是车

 

Carmakers, tech companies and ride-hailing firms are all fighting for a piece of the action

汽车制造商、科技公司和网约车公司都在力求分一杯羹

 

If you want to buy a fully self-driving car, you may have to wait for another decade. Autonomous vehicles will initially be offered for sale not to private owners but to robotaxi-fleet operators, for two reasons. First, LIDAR sensors are still so expensive that, deployed in production cars, they would cost more than the rest of the vehicle put together. For AVs in a robotaxi fleet, that is less of a problem, because vehicles will be operating, and thus generating revenue, throughout the day, whereas private cars are in use only about 5% of the time.

 

你若想买一辆全自动驾驶车，可能还得等上十年。无人驾驶汽车一开始会被卖给机器人出租车（robotaxi）运营商而非私人车主，有两个原因：第一，激光雷达（LIDAR）传感器仍太过昂贵，部署在量产车中的成本比一辆车所有其余部分的总成本还要高。但对于机器人出租车队来说这就不是个大问题，因为它们从早到晚都在路上跑并产生收入，而私家车大约只有5%的时间上路行驶。

 

Second, getting AVs to work safely and reliably is much easier if their geographical range is limited to places that have been mapped in fine detail, such as city centres. So your first ride in an AV will be in a vehicle you hail using an app, not one you own.

 

第二，如果能把无人车的行驶范围局限于城市中心这类已经被详细测绘的地区，要让它们安全、可靠地工作就会容易得多。所以，你第一次搭乘的无人车将会是用手机应用叫来的，而不是你自己的车。

 

Waymo, Alphabet’s AV effort, is testing a robotaxi service in Chandler, a suburb of Phoenix, and hopes to launch a commercial service later this year. Uber is operating driverless taxis in parts of Phoenix and Pittsburgh; users who hail a ride may find themselves being picked up by an autonomous car, supervised by an engineer (Uber gives riders the option to use an ordinary car instead if they prefer). Voyage, an AV startup, runs a robotaxi service in The Villages, a retirement community in San Jose, and is expanding to a second location, in Florida. Navya, a French startup, is operating an eight-seater autonomous shuttle bus in downtown Las Vegas, with three stops along a 1km (0.6 mile) route. It also has shuttles running in several other cities around the world, as does Easymile, a rival French firm. Large-scale deployments of AVs are most likely to start with geofenced robotaxi services in parts of cities such as Singapore or Dubai, and then expand over several years, predicts Nikolaus Lang of BCG.

 

Alphabet旗下的无人车公司Waymo正在凤凰城郊区的钱德勒（Chandler）测试机器人出租车，希望能在今年稍晚时推出一项商业服务。优步正在凤凰城和匹兹堡的部分地区运营无人驾驶出租车。用户在叫车后可能会发现来了一辆无人车，但会有一名工程师监控它（假如用户要求，优步也提供了普通汽车的选项）。无人车创业公司Voyage在圣荷西的退休社区The Villages推出了机器人出租车服务，目前在向位于佛罗里达州的第二个地点拓展业务。法国创业公司Navya正在拉斯维加斯市中心运营一种八人座无人驾驶通勤巴士，在总长一公里的行驶线路上共有三站。它在世界上几个其他城市也推出了这种通勤巴士服务。它的竞争对手、另一家法国公司Easymile也一样。波士顿咨询公司（BCG）的尼古拉斯·郎（Nikolaus Lang）预测，要大规模地部署无人车，最有可能是从在新加坡或迪拜等城市的特定地理围栏内运行的机器人出租车服务开始，在接下来几年里再进一步推广。

 

It is likely to be many years before AVs are cheap enough for individuals to buy them, and capable enough to operate outside predefined, geofenced areas. Meanwhile, the roll-out of cheap robotaxis in urban areas might encourage many young urbanites, who are already going off car ownership anyway, to abandon it altogether. The combination of ride-hailing and autonomous-driving technology confronts carmakers with “the most profound challenge to their business models in a century”, declares a recent report from BCG. That is why carmakers are now piling into ride-hailing and car-sharing services and pushing on with their own AV programmes. In an autonomous future where ownership is optional, they need to be selling rides, not cars.

 

无人驾驶汽车要便宜到适合个人买，且有能耐在预先界定的、划定地理围栏的范围以外的地区运作，很可能还需要许多年。与此同时，随着便宜的无人出租车队在都会区不断扩张，原本就已经不大想买车的城市年轻人可能会完全打消买车的念头。波士顿咨询公司近期的一份报告写道，网约车模式结合无人驾驶技术，让汽车制造商的商业模式“面临一个世纪以来最深刻的挑战”。这就是为什么如今汽车制造商争相进入网约车和共享汽车服务领域，还要奋力发展自己的无人驾驶项目。在一个无人驾驶的未来里，买车已经不是必须，那么这些公司要卖的就不是车而是车票了。

 

This shift offers carmakers a big opportunity. The car market is worth around $2trn a year globally, whereas the market for personal transport is worth as much as $10trn, according to Morgan Stanley, a bank. But it also exposes them to new competitors, in the form of technology companies and ride-hailing networks. Some carmakers have launched their own mobility services; others may prefer to act as fleet managers, providing capacity for ride-hailing operators and charging them by the mile. Some will even make “white label” fleets badged with the name of a city or a ride-hailing network, rather than their own brand.

 

这种转变给汽车制造商带来了一个巨大的机遇。摩根士丹利的数据显示，目前全球汽车市场的价值约为每年两万亿美元，而个人交通市场价值高达10万亿美元。但汽车制造商也遭遇新的竞争对手：科技公司和叫车网络。一些汽车制造商已经推出了自己的出行服务，另一些则可能更倾向成为车队的管理者，为网约车运营商提供运力，按里程向它们收费。一些汽车制造商甚至将制造“贴牌”车队——这些车不再使用自家品牌，而是贴着某个城市或某个叫车网络的名字。

 

Robotaxi fleets running around the clock will generate predictable yields that will appeal to institutional investors. Turning themselves into asset managers for such fleets would be a logical step for carmakers, whose finance arms are already involved in fleet management, says David Lesne of UBS.

 

昼夜不停行驶着的机器人出租车队将产生可预期的收益，吸引到机构投资者。变身为这些车队的资产管理者将是汽车制造商迈出的合理一步，它们的金融部门已经在参与车队管理，瑞银的大卫·莱内（David Lesne）说。

 

Pricing models for users will change, too: Uber is already testing telecoms-like monthly price plans in some cities, which include a certain number of rides or miles for a fixed price, just as a mobile calling plan offers a certain amount of calls, texts and data.

 

对用户的收费模式也会改变。优步已经在一些城市里测试类似电信公司使用的月付计划：用户每月支付固定价格，可获得一定里程数或乘车次数，就像手机套餐包含特定的通话时长、短信数量和数据流量。

 

One big question is the effect of AVs on the number of vehicles sold worldwide per year, currently around 80m. Since most cars sit unused 95% of the time, switching to shared robotaxis that operate around the clock could greatly reduce the number of vehicles on the road. UBS reckons the global fleet size will halve by 2030. But if robotaxis are in use 50% rather than 5% of the time, they will need to be replaced far more often, says Johann Jungwirth, chief digital officer of Volkswagen. So unless vehicle lifespans can be greatly extended, the number of new vehicles needed each year will rise.

 

一大问题是无人驾驶汽车对全球汽车年销量的影响，这个数字目前约为八千万辆。既然大部分汽车在95%的时间里都停着不用，那么改用终日运转的共享无人出租车将极大减少路面上的车辆。瑞银估计到2030年全球汽车存量将减小一半。但是，如果无人出租车有一半的时间（而不是5%）都在使用中，那么它们更换的频率就会大大提高，大众汽车的首席数字官约翰·容维尔特（Johann Jungwirth）说。因此，除非汽车的寿命极大地延长，否则每年需要的新车数量将会增加。

 

Making vehicles reliably in large quantities is hard, as Tesla’s production problems have shown. “The core expertise that we’ve had for decades is excellent manufacturing,” says Ponz Pandikuthira, head of product planning for the European arm of Nissan. So even in a world of robotaxis, being a carmaker could still be a big business – just a different one from what it is today. After 130 years making hardware, says Mr Jungwirth, “we need to take software and services just as seriously.” That requires taking on new staff, retraining, acquisitions and partnerships. AVs will also accelerate the switch to electric vehicles, which have fewer components and need fewer assembly workers.

 

正如特斯拉的量产问题已经显现的那样，可靠地大批量生产汽车是有难度的。“几十年来我们拥有的核心专长是杰出的制造能力。”日产汽车欧洲分公司的产品企划主管庞斯·潘迪库提拉（Ponz Pandikuthira）说。因此，即便是在一个机器人出租车的世界里，汽车制造商仍可能拥有一笔大生意——只是和今天有所不同而已。容维尔特说，经过130年的硬件制造后，“我们需要同样认真地对待软件和服务”。这就需要雇用新人、再培训、并购及合作。无人驾驶汽车的扩张也会加快向电动汽车的过渡，而电动汽车的部件更少，需要的装配工人也更少。

 

Form follows function

功能决定外形

 

It will not just be carmakers that change shape; so will cars. Just as early “horseless carriages” resembled horse-drawn carriages, without the horse, most autonomous vehicles today are ordinary cars, retrofitted to drive themselves. But take away the need for a steering wheel and pedals, and AVs can assume a much wider range of shapes and sizes; Volkswagen’s Sedric and the Mercedes-Benz F015 are pods in which passengers sit facing each other. Future AVs may need to allow for some physical separation of passengers to encourage people to share vehicles with strangers, says Karl Iagnemma of nuTonomy, while families might hail a different vehicle that lets everyone sit together.

 

将要变形的不仅是汽车制造商，汽车也一样。正如早期的“无马马车”的外形和马车没什么两样——只是没了那匹马，今天大部分的无人驾驶汽车都是改装普通汽车让它们能自行运转。但在不需要方向盘和脚踏板之后，无人驾驶汽车的形状和大小选择就可以多得多。大众Sedric和梅塞德斯·奔驰F015的外形接近一节火车车厢，乘客相对而坐。nuTonomy公司的卡尔·亚格涅玛（Karl Iagnemma）说，以后无人驾驶汽车可能需要在乘客之间留出一些空间，让大家愿意和陌生人拼车，而一家人出行时就要召一辆能让所有人挤在一起的车了。

 

All this is bad news for car dealers. Most are barely profitable now and make their money from car financing and servicing, so even a small shift from car ownership to shared robotaxis could hit them hard. Repair shops and partsmakers could also suffer, assuming AVs reduce the number of car accidents. Already, some parts suppliers are listing AVs as a threat to their future profitability in regulatory filings. Insurers would be hit hard by a fall in private car ownership and fewer accidents. Health-care providers and personal-injury lawyers would also suffer if there were fewer accidents, though few will feel sorry for them.

 

上述种种对于汽车经销商而言都是坏消息。它们中大多数现在就已经很难赚到钱，主要靠汽车贷款和售后服务维持，因此，哪怕只是从买车向共享机器人出租车迈出一小步，都会给它们沉重的打击。修车店和零部件生产商也会受到冲击——如果我们假定无人驾驶汽车会减少车祸的话。一些零部件供应商已经在监管申报材料中将无人驾驶汽车列为对自身未来盈利能力的一项威胁。私家车数量和车祸的减少也将重击保险公司。假如车祸真的减少，医疗部门和人身事故赔偿律师也会受影响——虽然没人会因此同情他们。

 

People who drive taxis, delivery vehicles and trucks are most directly threatened by AVs. Uber and Lyft say they will continue to need human drivers on some routes for years to come, but driving jobs might be redefined rather than abolished. Delivery drivers could be employed to manhandle large packages into customers’ homes. Truck drivers might become overseers of platoons of vehicles travelling on highways. And AVs will create new jobs for remote fleet supervisors and mobile repair workers.

 

出租车、送货车和卡车司机是最直接受到无人车威胁的人群。优步和Lyft称，未来多年里它们的某些路线仍将需要人类驾驶员，但驾驶这项工作可能会被重新定义而非完全取消。送货司机的主要任务会变成把大件包裹搬进客户家中。卡车司机可能会变成高速公路上的车队监控者。无人驾驶汽车还将创造出车队遥控员和流动维修员这样的新工种。

 

It already seems clear that AVs will cause the car industry and its adjacent businesses to change shape dramatically over the next couple of decades. But the consequences will not stop there. Like cars before them, AVs are sure to have far-reaching cultural and social effects too, most obviously in cities.

 

未来二三十年里，无人驾驶汽车将急剧改变汽车及相关行业的形态，这一点似乎已经很明确了。但其影响不止于此。正如其前身曾经所做的那样，无人车必将带来深远的文化和社会影响。这一点在城市最为明显。

下载：英文、中文版本