Personal Transportation: Uberworld

个人交通：优步世界

 

The world’s most valuable startup is leading the race to transform the future of transport

全球估值最高的创业公司正在引领未来交通的变革

 

“Let’s Uber.” Few companies offer something so popular that their name becomes a verb. But that is one of the many achievements of Uber, a company founded in 2009 which is now the world’s most valuable startup, worth around $70 billion. Its app can summon a car in moments in more than 425 cities around the world, to the fury of taxi drivers everywhere. But Uber’s ambitions, and the expectations underpinning its valuation, extend much further: using self-driving vehicles, it wants to make ride-hailing so cheap and convenient that people forgo car ownership altogether. Not satisfied with shaking up the $100-billion-a-year taxi business, it has its eye on the far bigger market for personal transport, worth as much as $10 trillion a year globally.

 

“我们优步一下吧。”极少有公司提供的产品如此风行，连公司名都成了一个动词。而这只是优步的众多成就之一。成立于2009年的优步目前是全球市值最高的创业公司，估值约700亿美元。它的应用能在全世界超过425个城市即刻叫车，令各地的出租车司机狂怒不已。但是优步的目标，以及支撑其估值的期许，还不止于此：它想要利用自动驾驶汽车使打车便宜又方便，以此让人们彻底打消拥有汽车的念头。它不满足于撼动每年一千亿美元的出租车生意，而是已将目光投向更大的、全球总值约为每年十万亿美元的个人交通市场。

 

Uber is not alone in this ambition. Companies big and small have recognised the transformative potential of electric, self-driving cars, summoned on demand. Technology firms including Apple, Google and Tesla are investing heavily in autonomous vehicles; from Ford to Volvo, incumbent carmakers are racing to catch up. An epic struggle looms. It will transform daily life as profoundly as cars did in the 20th century: reinventing transport and reshaping cities, while also dramatically reducing road deaths and pollution.

 

有此野心的不止优步一家。大大小小的公司都意识到随叫随到的电动自动驾驶汽车有引发变革的潜力。包括苹果、谷歌和特斯拉在内的科技公司都不惜重金开发自动驾驶汽车；从福特到沃尔沃，现有的汽车生产商竞相迎头赶上。一场史诗般宏大的战斗即将打响。这将改变人们的日常生活，其深刻程度不亚于汽车在20世纪所产生的影响：彻底改造交通、重塑城市，同时大幅减少交通事故死亡人数及污染。

 

In the short term Uber is in pole position to lead the revolution because of its dominance of chauffeured ride-hailing, a part of the transport market that will see some of the fastest growth. Today ride-hailing accounts for less than 4% of all kilometres driven globally, but that will rise to more than 25% by 2030, according to Morgan Stanley, a bank. The ability to summon a car using a smartphone does not just make it easy for individuals to book a cheaper taxi. Ride-sharing services like UberPool, which put travellers heading in the same direction into one vehicle, blur the boundaries between private and public transport. Helsinki and other cities have been experimenting with on-demand bus services and apps that enable customers to plan and book journeys combining trains and buses with walking and private ride-sharing services. Get it right, and public-transport networks will be extended to cover the “last mile” that takes people right to their doorsteps. This will extend the market for ride-hailing well beyond the wealthy urbanites who are its main users today.

 

短期内优步将引领这场革命，这是由于它在专车服务市场上占据主导地位，而这部分交通市场的增长将最为迅猛。摩根士丹利银行的数据显示，目前叫车占全球行车里程还不到4%，但到2030年将增至超过25%。用智能手机就能叫车不只会让个人能打到更便宜的出租车。Uberpool这样的拼车服务将去往同一方向的乘客拼到一辆车上，模糊了私人交通和公共交通的界线。赫尔辛基和其他城市已经开始试验随叫随到的公共汽车服务，以及让乘客在计划并预定行程时可将火车、公共汽车和步行及私人拼车服务结合起来的应用。如果做得好，公共交通网络将延伸到能覆盖“最后一英里”，把人们直接送到家门口。这会将叫车市场远远扩展到富裕的城市居民之外，而这些人是目前的主要用户。

 

But in the longer term autonomous vehicles will drive the reinvention of transport. The first examples have already hit the road. Google is testing autonomous cars on streets near its headquarters in Mountain View. A startup called nuTonomy recently launched a self-driving taxi service in Singapore. Tesla’s electric cars are packed full of driver-assistance technology. And within the next few weeks Uber itself will offer riders in Pittsburgh the chance to hail an autonomous car (though a human will be on hand to take back the wheel if needed).

 

不过长远看来，推动交通变革的将会是自动驾驶汽车。第一批试用车辆已经上路。谷歌正在其山景城（Mountain View）总部附近的街道上测试自动驾驶汽车。一家名叫nuTonomy的创业公司最近在新加坡推出了无人驾驶出租车服务。特斯拉的电动车装配了各种各样的司机辅助技术。接下来的几周内，优步自己也将向匹兹堡的乘客提供叫自动驾驶汽车服务的机会（尽管仍有人坐在驾驶座位上，必要时会接管方向盘）。

 

Self-driving cars will reinforce trends unleashed by ride-hailing, making it cheaper and more accessible. The disabled, the old and the young will find it easier to go where they want. Many more people will opt out of car ownership altogether. An OECD study that modelled the use of self-driving cars in Lisbon found that shared autonomous vehicles could reduce the number of cars needed by 80-90%. As car ownership declines, the enormous amount of space devoted to parking – as much as a quarter of the area of some American cities—will be available for parks and housing instead.

 

自动驾驶汽车将加强因打车服务而解放的市场趋势，让这一服务更便宜、更便利。残疾人、老人和孩子会发现到他们想去的地方变得更容易了。更多的人会选择不再拥有汽车。经合组织（OECD）的一项模拟自动驾驶汽车在里斯本使用状况的研究发现，可共享的自动驾驶汽车能将所需汽车数量减少80%至90%。随着汽车拥有量的下降，停车所需的大量空间（在美国有些城市占全到市面积的四分之一）可以用来建造公园和住房。

 

It is not clear which companies will dominate this world or how profitable it will be. Uber will not win in its current form: a ride-hailing business which depends on human drivers cannot compete on roads full of self-driving cars. But this existential threat is spurring the firm’s innovation. With its strong brand and large customer base, Uber aims to establish itself as the leading provider of transport services in a self-driving world. It is also branching out into new areas, such as food delivery and long-distance cargo haulage using autonomous trucks. There is logic in this ambition. Carmakers lack Uber’s experience as a service provider, or its deep knowledge of demand patterns and customer behaviour.

 

至于哪些公司会主导这个世界，又会有多赚钱，目前尚不明了。优步不能靠目前的模式取胜：依靠人类司机的叫车业务无法与满街的自动驾驶汽车抗衡。但是事关生存，这一威胁激发了公司的创新。凭借强大的品牌和庞大的客户基础，优步的目标是将自身打造成自动驾驶领域领先的交通服务供应商。它也在涉足新的领域，如送餐服务，以及用自动驾驶卡车长途运送货物。这一目标有其合理性。汽车制造商欠缺优步作为服务供应商的经验，也缺乏对需求类型和客户行为的深刻理解。

 

But firms that pioneer new technological trends do not always manage to stay on top. Think of Nokia and BlackBerry in smartphones, Kodak in digital cameras or MySpace in social networking. Much will depend on which firm best handles the regulators. Technology companies have a history of trying new things first and asking for permission later. Uber’s success in ride-hailing owes much to this recipe, yet when it comes to autonomous vehicles, the combination of vague rules and imperfect technology can have deadly consequences.

 

然而开创新技术浪潮的公司并不能始终保持领先。想想智能手机领域的诺基亚和黑莓、数码相机市场上的柯达，或社交网络领域的MySpace。成功在很大程度上取决于哪家公司能最好地应对监管部门。技术公司早就惯于先尝试新事物，再申请许可。优步在打车服务上的成功就多亏了这一套，但到了自动驾驶汽车领域，规则含混不清加上技术不完善会导致致命的后果。

 

Even for the winners, it is not clear how great the rewards will be. As more firms pile into ride-sharing, and autonomous vehicles become part of the mix, the business may prove to be less lucrative than expected. By matching riders with drivers, Uber can offer transport services without owning a single vehicle, and keep the lion’s share of the profits. But if its service becomes an integral part of urban transport infrastructure, as it hopes, Uber could end up being regulated, more highly taxed, broken up or all of the above. In a self-driving world, Uber might also have to own and operate its own fleet, undermining its “asset-light” model. The would-be high-margin digital disrupter would then look more like a low-margin airline.

 

即便是对赢家而言，获利能有多少也不甚清楚。越来越多的公司争相提供打车服务，再加上自动驾驶汽车也加入这一行列，这门生意也许最终并没有预期的那么赚钱。优步将乘客与司机匹配，其自身不需拥有一辆汽车就能提供交通服务，因此拿到了利润的大头。但若如它所望——其服务成为城市交通基础设施的一部分，那么优步可能最终会受到监管、被征更高的税费、被拆解，或是经历上述全部处置。在自动驾驶的世界，优步可能必须得拥有并运营自己的车队，动摇其“轻资产”模式。本想成为高利润的数字化颠覆者的优步，到时候可能会更像一家低利润率的航空公司。

 

For now Uber is the firm to beat in the race to transform the future of personal transport. Unlike Apple or Google, it is singularly focused on transport; unlike incumbent carmakers, it does not have a legacy car-manufacturing business to protect. Its recent rapprochement with Didi, its main rival in China, has removed a major distraction, allowing it to devote its $9 billion war chest to developing new technology. Its vision of the future is plausible and compelling. It could yet prove a Moses company, never reaching its promised land – it might end up like Hoover, lending its name to a new product category without actually dominating it. But whether Uber itself wins or loses, we are all on the road to Uberworld.

 

直到目前优步仍是改造个人交通未来这场赛事的领跑者。与苹果或谷歌不同，它只关注交通；与在位的汽车制造商不同，它不需要保护遗留的的汽车制造业务。它最近同中国主要对手滴滴打车的和解消除了一个重要的干扰，使之能将90亿美元巨款全部投入到新技术的研发。它的未来愿景看似合理且引人注目。它可能会成为一家“摩西”公司，永远无法到达它的“应许之地”；也许最终它会像胡佛吸尘器公司一样，公司名称被用于命名一类新产品，但却未能真正主导该领域。但无论优步自身是输是赢，我们都身在通往优步世界的路上。

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