“Steer, Don’t Drift”: Managing Rising Risks to Keep the Global Economy on Course

“把舵航行，而不随波逐流”：管理不断上升的风险，为全球经济保驾护航

Christine Lagarde, Managing Director, IMF

基金组织总裁克里斯蒂娜·拉加德在基金组织总部的讲话

October 1, 2018

2018年10月1日

Honored guests, ladies and gentlemen, good morning and welcome.

尊敬的各位来宾，女士们、先生们，早上好，欢迎你们！

Our event today is the penultimate leg of what we call our “Voyage to Indonesia” – the final leg being our Annual Meetings to be held next week in Bali.

今天的活动是我们所说的“印度尼西亚之行”的倒数第二站，而此行的终点站，则是我们将于下周在巴厘岛举行的年会。

This is a challenging moment for Indonesia, a country that has transformed itself in recent decades, unleashing its economic dynamism and harnessing the incredible ingenuity and diversity of its people. A country that is so often dealing with the hardship of natural disasters.

对于印度尼西亚来说，这是一个既具有挑战的时刻。近几十年来，印度尼西亚一直都在推动自身转型，释放经济活力，充分利用人民不可思议的聪明才智与多样性。这个国家同时也经常需要应对自然灾害带来的困难。

We can all learn so much from Indonesia and its ASEAN partners – especially when it comes to building resilience, embracing openness, and reaching out across borders.

从印度尼西亚及其东盟伙伴国那里，我们可以学到很多东西——在建立和加强面对困难时的韧性、欣然接受开放和加强跨国联系方面，尤其如此。

One important lesson is that if countries work together, they are far more likely to enhance the well-being of their people than if they go it alone.

一项重要的经验教训是：相比孤军奋战，各国同心协力将更有可能增加人民的福祉。

We saw this clearly during the global financial crisis.

在全球金融危机中，我们清楚地看到了这一点。

This multilateral spirit is captured well by a beautiful Indonesian phrase – “gotong royong,” “working together to achieve a common goal.”

这种多边精神在一个美丽的印尼词语中得到了很好的诠释：“gotong royong”，即“为共同的目标通力合作”。

This spirit is needed more than ever to meet the challenges ahead.

为了迎接未来的挑战，我们比以往任何时候都更需要这种精神。

This morning, I will talk about three of them: (i) building a better trade system; (ii) guarding against fiscal and financial turbulence; and (iii) rebuilding trust in policymaking and institutions.

今天上午，我将谈到其中的三个挑战：（i）建立更好的贸易体系；（ii）防范财政与金融动荡；（iii）重建人们对决策和体制的信任。

Trade, turbulence and trust.

贸易、动荡和信任。

1. Changing economic weather

1. 经济气候正在发生变化

 

Before I get to the challenges, let me present a brief “lay of the land” on the eve of our Annual Meetings.

在谈及挑战之前，让我先简要说一说年会前的总体经济形势。

First, the good news. Global growth is still at its highest level since 2011 when economies were rebounding post-crisis. Unemployment is still falling in most countries. And the proportion of the global population living in extreme poverty has dropped to a new record-low of less than 10 percent. [1]

首先是好消息。目前，全球经济增长仍处于2011年各个经济体在经历危机后恢复发展以来的最高水平。大多数国家的失业率仍在下降。全球生活极端贫困的人口比重已降至 10%以下，创下历史纪录。[1]

In other words, the world continues to experience an expansion that holds the promise of higher incomes and living standards.

换言之，世界经济正持续扩张，这有望提高人们的收入和生活水平。

So is everything fine? Well, only up to a point.

那么，一切都很好吗？只是在某种程度上是这样的。

For most countries, it has become more difficult to deliver on the promise of greater prosperity, because the global economic weather is beginning to change. What do I mean by that?

对于大多数国家来说，要实现“带来更多繁荣”的承诺已经变得愈发困难，因为全球经济气候已经开始变化。这是什么意思呢？

A year ago, I said, “the sun is shining – fix the roof.” Six months ago, I pointed to clouds of risk on the horizon.

一年前我曾说：“现在虽然阳光明媚，但是仍须未雨绸缪。”6个月前，我曾指出风险云团已初露端倪。

Today, some of those risks have begun to materialize.

如今，其中的一些风险已开始成为现实。

Indeed, there are signs that global growth has plateaued. It is becoming less synchronized, with fewer countries participating in the expansion.

事实上，有迹象显示，全球经济增长已开始在现有水平徘徊不前。各国的增长日益变得不同步，经济扩张的国家越来越少。

In July, we projected 3.9 percent global growth for 2018 and 2019. The outlook has since become less bright, as you will see from our updated forecast next week.

我们在7月作出的预测认为，2018年和2019年全球经济将增长3.9% 。自那以后，前景已变得黯淡，你们可以从我们下周的预测更新中看到这一点。

A key issue is that rhetoric is morphing into a new reality of actual trade barriers. This is hurting not only trade itself, but also investment and manufacturing as uncertainty continues to rise.

一个关键问题是，贸易壁垒不再只是空谈，它正在演变成实际的新现实。这不仅损害了贸易本身，而且随着不确定性的持续上升，还损害了投资与制造业。

For now, the United States is growing strongly, supported by a procyclical fiscal expansion and still easy financial conditions-which can become a risk in a maturing business cycle.

目前，在顺周期财政扩张和仍然宽松的金融环境的支持下，美国正在强劲增长。但是，当经济周期行将结束时，扩张可能会构成风险。

In other advanced economies, however, there are signs of slowing, especially in the euro area and, to some extent, in Japan.

然而，其他发达经济体则出现了经济放缓的迹象，特别是欧元区以及在某种程度上日本。

Emerging Asian continues to grow at higher rates than other regions, but we see indicators of moderation in China, which will be exacerbated by the trade disputes.

亚洲新兴国家的经济增速仍继续高于其他地区，但我们看到有指标显示中国的经济增速在放缓，且贸易纠纷会导致进一步放缓。

Meanwhile, challenges have been mounting in a number of other emerging markets and low-income countries-including in Latin America, the Middle East, and Sub-Saharan Africa.

与此同时，其他一些新兴市场和低收入国家（包括拉美、中东和撒哈拉以南非洲地区）的挑战也在增加。

Many of these economies are facing pressures from a stronger U.S. dollar and a tightening of financial market conditions. Some of them are now facing capital outflows.

其中很多经济体正面临着美元升值和金融市场环境收紧的压力。部分国家目前还出现了资本外流。

To be clear, we are not seeing broader financial contagion-so far-but we also know that conditions can change rapidly.

需要明确的是，到目前为止，我们还未看到出现更广泛的金融传染——但我们也知道，形势可能会急转直下。

If the current trade disputes were to escalate further, they could deliver a shock to a broader range of emerging and developing economies.

当前的贸易争端如果进一步升级，就可能给新兴和发展中经济体带来更广泛的冲击。

So what should be done?

那么应该怎么办？

At times like these, policymakers might take inspiration from the great American poet, Oliver Wendell Holmes Sr., who once said:

在这种情况下，政策制定者可能会从伟大的美国诗人老奥利弗·温德尔·霍姆斯[2]那里汲取灵感，他曾经说：

“To reach a port, we must sail sometimes with the wind and sometimes against it – but we must sail, and not drift, nor lie at anchor.”

“为抵达彼岸，我们有时必须顺风航行，有时则必须逆风而行——但我们必须把舵航行，不能随波逐流，也不能下锚停船。”

My key message today is that we need to manage the risks, step up reforms, and modernize the multilateral system.

今天我要传递的一条重要信息是：我们需要管理风险，加强改革，实现多边体系的现代化。

Or, to put it in shipping terms, we need to steer the boat, not drift!

若拿航海打比方，我们需要把舵航行，而不是随波逐流！

2. Steer the boat, don’t drift

2. 把舵航行，而不是随波逐流

This means, above all, seizing the opportunity now – while growth remains relatively strong – to implement the bold policy reforms needed to support the economic momentum and sustain it.

这首先意味着现在应该抓住机遇——在经济增长依然较为强劲时，大胆实施必要的政策改革以支持并维持经济增长势头。

As I have said, “We should fix the roof”, now more than ever it is the right thing to do.

我在前面讲过，“我们应该未雨绸缪”，眼下就是采行这一正确之举的最好时机。

How can that be done in practice? By addressing the three challenges I mentioned at the outset – trade, turbulence, and trust.

在实践中如何才能做到这一点？我将通过论述开始时提到的三个挑战——贸易、动荡和信任，来回答这个问题。

a）Build a better global trade system

a）建立更好的全球贸易体系

 

First, trade. Simply put, countries need to work together to build a global trade system that is stronger, fairer, and fit for the future.

首先是贸易。简单来说，各国需要共同努力，建立一个更强大、更公平、更适应未来的全球贸易体系。

The stakes are high because the fracturing of global value chains could have a devastating effect on many countries, including advanced economies. It could also prevent emerging and low-income countries from reaching their full potential.

这一点极为重要，因为全球价值链的断裂可能对包括发达经济体在内的许多国家产生破坏性影响。全球价值链断裂也会阻止新兴和低收入国家充分发挥潜力。

The stakes are high because import restrictions prevent trade from playing its essential role in boosting productivity, spreading new technologies, and reducing poverty.

这一点极为关键，因为进口限制会阻止贸易在提高生产率、传播新技术和减少贫困方面发挥重要作用。

That is why we need to work together to de-escalate and resolve the current trade disputes.

这就是为什么我们需要共同努力，以缓和并最终解决当前的贸易争端。

History shows that, while it is tempting to sail alone, countries must resist the siren call of self-sufficiency – because as the Greek legends tell us that leads to shipwreck.

历史表明，虽然独行海上自有其魅力，但是各国必须抵制海妖那充满诱惑而又危险的、对自负的召唤——因为希腊传说告诉我们，这会导致海难。

Going forward, what we need are “smarter rules” for trade that ensure all can gain. We need to fix the system, not destroy it.

展望未来，我们需要为贸易建立“更明智的规则”，确保所有人都能获益。我们需要修复、而不是破坏这一体系。

The immediate challenge is to strengthen the rules. This includes looking at the distortionary effects of state subsidies, preventing abuses of dominant positions, and improving the enforcement of intellectual property rights.

最紧迫的挑战是完善规则。这包括研究国家补贴带来的扭曲效应、防止滥用支配地位、以及完善知识产权权利的行使。

On these issues, we can be encouraged by the growing number of discussions and proposals, most recently from Canada and the European Union. These are positive steps, and there is further work to be done.

在这些问题上，我们看到已经有越来越多的讨论和提议，其中最新的来自于加拿大和欧盟，这令我们万分鼓舞。这些是积极的举措，此外还有更多的工作要做。

For example, if agreement among all countries cannot be achieved, governments could use more flexible trade deals – where like-minded countries agree to work within the framework of the World Trade Organization.

例如，如果不能让所有国家达成一致，那么各国政府不如使用更加灵活的贸易协议——持有类似观点的国家可以同意在世界贸易组织的框架内开展工作。

Of course, fixing the system also means making it fit for the future. Here again, we could use flexible trade agreements to unlock the full potential of e-commerce and other tradable services, such as engineering, communications, and transportation.

当然，修复这一体系也意味着要让它适应未来。在这里，我们也可以使用灵活的贸易协议来释放电子商务和其他可贸易服务（例如，工程、通信和运输）的全部潜力。

Our latest analysis [2] shows that by reducing trading costs for services by 15 percent, we could boost total GDP of G20 countries by more than $350 billion this year. That would be the equivalent of adding another South Africa to the G20.

我们的最新分析[3]表明，若将服务贸易的成本降低15%，则可将今年二十国集团国家的GDP总量提高3500亿美元以上。这相当于又有一个南非加入了二十国集团。

These are the kinds of gains that are within reach – if we work together, if we focus on creating a better global trade system. There is a clear appetite to improve and expand trade. The recent African trade agreement and the flurry of bilateral negotiations evidence that determination.

如果我们共同努力，如果我们专注于创建一个更好的全球贸易体系，那么这些成果都可以实现。很明显，各方面都有改善和扩大贸易的良好意愿。最近签署的非洲贸易协定和开展的一系列双边谈判都证明了这一决心。

b）Guarding against fiscal and financial turbulence

b）防范财政和金融动荡

My second challenge is guarding against fiscal and financial turbulence.

我所说的第二个挑战是防范财政和金融动荡。

Here’s the question: Ten years after the global financial crisis, are we any safer? My answer is “Yes”… but not safe enough. We must push on with the financial regulatory agenda and resist backsliding.

这个方面的问题是：全球金融危机爆发十年之后，我们更安全了吗？我的回答是“毋庸置疑”……但是，还不够安全。 我们必须推进金融监管议程，并防止倒退。

Moreover, after a decade of relatively easy financial conditions, debt levels have reached new highs in advanced, emerging, and low-income countries.

此外，在经历了十年相对宽松的金融环境后，发达国家、新兴国家和低收入国家的债务水平都达到了新高。

In fact, global debt, both public and private, has reached an all-time high of $182 trillion – almost 60 percent higher than in 2007.

事实上，全球债务（包括公共和私人债务）已达到182万亿美元 的历史最高水平——比2007年高出了近60%。

This buildup has left governments and companies more vulnerable to a tightening of financial conditions.

此等债务增长使政府和企业更易受到金融环境收紧的影响。

Emerging and developing economies are already feeling the pinch as they adjust to monetary normalization in the advanced world.

在适应发达国家货币政策正常化的过程中，新兴和发展中经济体已经感受到了压力。

That process could become even more challenging if it were to accelerate suddenly. It could lead to market corrections, sharp exchange rate movements, and further weakening of capital flows.

这一进程如果突然加速，就可能带来更多挑战。这可能导致市场出现调整、汇率大幅波动以及资本流动进一步弱化。

We estimate [3] that emerging economies, excluding China, could potentially face debt portfolio outflows of up to $100 billion – which would broadly match outflows during the global financial crisis.

我们估计[4]，除中国以外的新兴经济体可能面临高达1000亿美元的债务组合资本流出——这与全球金融危机期间的流出规模大致相当。

This should serve as a wake-up call.

这应当视为一记警钟。

We are not there yet, by any means. But some countries are already facing rough waters. The IMF is deeply engaged in these economies through analysis and advice, and by providing financial assistance where needed. We will continue to do so.

从各方面看，我们都还没有落到那个地步。但有些国家已经面临严峻的形势。基金组织与这些经济体深入开展接触，进行分析，给予建议，并在必要时提供资金援助。我们还将继续这么做。

For most countries, however, steering the boat means creating more room to act when the next downturn inevitably comes.

但对于大多数国家来说，把舵航行意味着要创造更多空间，以便在下一次经济衰退不可避免地发生时能够有余地采取行动。

Emerging economies can create this room by reducing risks from high corporate debt, while greater efforts are needed to make government borrowing [4] more sustainable in low-income countries.

新兴经济体可以通过降低高额企业债务的风险来创造这一空间；同时，低收入国家也需要开展更多工作，让政府举债[5]更具可持续性。

In many cases, creating more room means allowing flexible exchange rates to absorb some of the pressures from capital flow reversals.

在很多情况下，创造更多空间意味着要允许汇率灵活波动，以便消除资本流动逆转产生的部分压力。

On that point, IMF analysis [5] shows that countries with greater exchange rate flexibility experienced smaller output losses after the global financial crisis. We also found that economies are more resilient when their monetary policy is more trusted and when their independent central banks communicate clearly. [6]

在这一点上，基金组织的分析[6]表明：在全球金融危机之后，汇率灵活性较高的国家产出损失较小。我们也发现，当人们较信任货币政策且其独立央行的政策沟通较清晰时，经济体的抗风险能力就更强。[7]

Advanced economies need to act as well. They can create the room they need by reducing government deficits and placing public debt on a gradual downward path. This should be done in a fair and growth-friendly way – through more efficient spending and by ensuring that the burden of adjustment is shared by all.

发达经济体也需要行动起来。它们可以减少政府赤字，逐步降低公共债务，从而创造出必要的空间。这应按照公平和有益于增长的方式进行——提高支出的有效性以及确保调整负担由所有人分担。

At the same time, countries should not overlook another aspect of their balance sheets – the public wealth that is tied up in government financial assets, public companies, and natural resources.

同时，各国也不应忽视资产负债表的另一面——与政府金融资产、公有企业、自然资源相关的公共财富。

Here we have new IMF analysis [7] of 31 countries showing total public assets of more than $100 trillion, well over twice their GDP.

在这方面，基金组织对31个国家开展的一项新分析[8]显示，这些国家的公共资产总额超过100万亿美元，远超出它们GDP的两倍。

Improving the management of these public assets could deliver additional revenues of about 3 percent of GDP per year – which is significant. In fact, that is equal to what advanced economies collect in corporate tax in a year.

改善这些公共资产的管理可以带来每年占GDP比重3 %左右的额外收入——这是非常重要的。事实上，这等于发达经济体每一年征缴的企业税。

Again, it’s not about sailing alone, with each country responding only to national concerns. Guarding against potential turbulence will require countries working together in a cohesive and collaborative manner.

再次重申，我们不能独行海上。每个国家不应只是应对本国的关切。防止潜在的动荡需要各国协调一致、共同努力。

As an example of this, we know that governments can make their economies less vulnerable to disruptive capital flows by reducing current account imbalances. How? By increasing public investment where fiscal positions are healthy and by lowering fiscal deficits elsewhere. These policy actions at the national level complement each other at the global level.

举个例子：我们知道，通过减少经常账户失衡，政府可以降低经济在破坏性资本流动下的脆弱性。如何做到这一点呢？财政状况健康的国家应增加公共投资，其他国家则应降低财政赤字。这些政策在国家层面制定，又在全球层面相互补充。

Guarding against turbulence also requires a strong global financial safety net, which in turn means a well-equipped and well-resourced IMF at its center. This is the key to ensure that the Fund can play its unique role in helping countries deal with future crises.

防范动荡也需要建立一个强大的全球金融安全网。反过来，这也意味着全球安全网的中心需要一个装备齐全、资源充足的基金组织。这一点对于确保基金组织在帮助各国应对未来危机中发挥独特作用而言十分关键。

This is a top priority for me, combined with further adjustment to the governance of the Fund to better reflect the changing economic dynamics of our membership.

这对我来说是一项首要任务，此外还须对基金组织的治理作进一步调整，以更好反映我们成员国不断变化的经济状况。

c）Rebuild trust in institutions and policymaking

c）重建人们对体制和政策制定的信任

Let me now turn to my third challenge – rebuilding trust in institutions and policymaking. This is essential for durable and more widely shared growth.

现在我想说说第三个挑战——重建人们对体制和政策制定的信任。这对实现人人皆可分享的持久经济增长至关重要。

The causes of the decline in trust are many. First and foremost, far too many people remain on the margins.

信任度下降的原因很多。第一，有太多人被边缘化了。

In too many countries, growth has failed to lift the prospects and livelihoods of ordinary people. In too many cases, workers and families are now convinced that the system is somehow rigged, that the odds are stacked against them.

在太多的国家，增长未能提升普通人的境况和生活水平。在太多情况下，工人和家庭相信现有体系在某种程度上被人操纵，给他们造成了困苦。

This is not hard to understand: Since 1980, the top one percent globally has captured twice as much of the gains from growth as the bottom 50 percent.

这并不难理解：1980年以来，全球收入最高的1%的群体从增长中获得的利益是最低的50%的群体的两倍。

Over that period, many advanced economies saw rising income inequality and limited growth in wages – partly due to technology, partly due to global integration, and partly due to policies that favored capital over labor.

在此期间，许多发达经济体的收入不平等不断加剧，而工资增长有限——这部分源于技术，部分源于全球一体化，还有部分原因在于那些偏向资本而非劳动力的政策。

A related source of dissatisfaction comes from raw memories of the global financial crisis. Many people saw this as the ultimate breach of public trust because of the widely-shared perception that those who caused the crisis did not face consequences, while ordinary people paid a heavy price.

不满情绪来自对全球金融危机的原始记忆。许多人认为这是对公众信任的终极破坏，因为人们普遍认为：造成危机的人没有承担后果，可普通人却付出了沉痛的代价。

A third factor is corruption – an economic and social plague that makes it hard for countries to take the right collective decisions. This is bound to inhibit economic dynamism, which further undermines trust and sets in motion a vicious cycle.

第三个因素是腐败—— 腐败是一种经济和社会瘟疫，它使各国难以作出正确的集体决策。这势必会抑制经济活力，进一步破坏信任并引发恶性循环。

And, of course, in an age of rapid technological change – where digitalization and artificial intelligence are sweeping across industries – we will need even higher levels of public trust.

当然，在这个科技进步日新月异的时代，在这个数字化和人工智能横扫各个产业的时代，我们需要公众给予我们更高水平的信任。

There are various estimates of how many jobs may be gained or lost due to technology. A striking finding from our recent analysis indicates that women could be especially hard hit – with 26 million of their jobs at risk in OECD countries alone.

各方对因技术进步导致的失业作出了各种估计。我们在近期的分析中得出了一个惊人结论：女性受到的冲击可能尤为沉重——仅经合组织国家就有2600万妇女面临失业风险。

Why? Because women often have to do more of the routine tasks than men – precisely the kinds of jobs more likely to be affected by automation.

为什么会这样？因为女性承担的例行性工作往往比男性更多——特别是那些更容易受自动化影响的工作。

That is why governments will need to take more responsibility for the human cost of disruption, whether from technology, trade, or economic reform.

这就是为什么政府需要对动荡（不论是由科技、贸易还是经济改革引起）造成的人力成本承担更多责任。

So what can be done? A key priority must be to invest in people – in health and education, in social protection systems.

那么，我们能做些什么？一个重要的优先事项是：必须投资于人，即，对医疗教育、社会保障体系进行投资。

These improvements in human, social, and physical capital are especially important in low-income countries, where significant new spending is needed to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals. We have recently estimated that this additional spending amounts to about $520 billion per year by 2030. [8]

人力资本、社会资本和实物资本的改善对低收入国家尤为重要。它们需要大量的新支出来实现“联合国可持续发展目标”——据我们的最新估计，到2030年，这些国家每年需要额外支出 5200亿美元。[9]

We certainly need a 21st-century education system – to reduce inequality of opportunity and help everyone thrive in the digital age.

我们当然也需要建立二十一世纪的教育体系——减少机会不平等，以及帮助每个人在数字时代茁壮成长。

We need scaled-up investment in training and social safety nets so that workers can upgrade their skills, transition to higher-quality jobs, and earn more.

我们需要在培训和社会安全网方面加大投入，以便工人提升技能，向更高质量的工作岗位转移，并获得更多的收入。

Wherever feasible, we need more progressive taxation and higher minimum wages. And across the globe, we need smarter taxation of multinational corporations to ensure that all pay their fair share. [9]

可以的话，我们还需要提高税制的累进性并提高最低工资。在全球范围内，我们需要更加明智地对跨国企业征税，确保其缴纳应纳税款。[10]

Fairer policies should also make it easier to balance work and family, where burdens too often fall on women: these policies range from well-designed parental leave, to affordable high-quality childcare, to tax systems that do not penalize second earners.

更公平的政策还应该便于人们平衡工作和家庭，其中家庭负担往往过多地落在女性肩上。这些政策包括精心设计的亲子假、高质低价的儿童保育服务、不惩罚第二收入者的税收制度等。

Another element critical to restoring trust is to implement policies and reforms that not only boost growth, but do so in a manner that is inclusive and sustainable.

重建信任的另一个重要因素是实施那些不仅能够促进增长，而且能够促进以包容性可持续方式增长的政策和改革。

This means that all countries must join hands to tame the menace of climate change. If we care about the well-being of future generations; if we care about the plight of climate refugees, we must be serious about pricing carbon emissions to account for their social costs.

这意味着所有国家必须联手遏制气候变化的威胁。如果我们关心子孙后代的福祉，如果我们关心气候难民的困境，我们就必须认真研究碳排放的定价，以体现其所带来的社会成本。

The IMF is supporting its members on this and many other pressing issues through policy advice and capacity development, and by providing a platform for sharing best practices and fresh ideas.

基金组织正致力于提供政策建议、开展能力建设以及提供分享最佳实践和新思想的平台，就上述以及其他许多紧迫问题为成员国提供帮助。

This includes helping our members navigate the rapidly shifting currents of the fintech world.

这包括帮助我们的成员国在金融科技世界快速变化的潮流中顺利航行。

Together with the World Bank and other partners, we have developed what we call the “Bali Fintech Agenda,” to be released at our Annual Meetings next week. This is a blueprint for policymakers who are seeking to manage new risks, while harnessing fintech potential for the benefit of all – not just the wealthy or the well – connected.

我们与世界银行及其他合作伙伴一起，制定了我 “巴厘金融科技议程”，将于下周在年会上公布。这将为那些寻求管理新风险、同时又想利用金融科技的潜力来造福所有人（不仅仅是富人或关系户）的政策制定者提供一份蓝图。

This is another example of how we can foster international cooperation that is more inclusive, more open and representative, and more effective in delivering for people.

这为我们提供了另一个例子，教我们如何促进更加包容、更为开放、更具代表性的国际合作，以便更有效地为民众提供服务。

I call this the “new multilateralism”. And I believe we need it more than ever to address the challenges of trade, turbulence, and trust.

我把这些称为“新多边主义”。我相信，我们比以往任何时候都更需要应对贸易、动荡和信任方面的挑战。

Conclusion

结论

Let me conclude by thanking the Executive Board of the Fund and our talented and diverse staff, who embody the highest aspirations of international cooperation.

请允许我借此机会感谢基金组织执董会和我们极具才干和多样化的工作人员，他们体现了对国际合作的最高愿望。

This is, in my view, beautifully captured in the official motto of Indonesia: “Bhinneka Tunggal Ika,” “Unity in Diversity.”

在我看来，印度尼西亚的官方座右铭“Bhinneka Tunggal Ika”、即“多元一体”很好地体现了这一点。

When we sail together, we are stronger, nimbler, better able to steer the ship through rough waters and avoid the rocks of shipwreck.

当我们同舟共济时，我们会更加强大、更为敏捷、更有能力驾船驶过波涛汹涌的海域，避开造成海难的礁石。

So now, as we set sail on our Voyage to Indonesia, let us work together – so we can steer our economies in the right direction and bring all people whether on big or small boats to a new and better port.

那么现在，当我们踏上“印度尼西亚之行”的伟大航程时，让我们共同努力——这样我们就可以把握好经济的航向，不管是小船还是大船，最终将所有人载到更加美好的全新彼岸。

Thank you.

谢谢。

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