双语:New Economic Landscape, New Multilateralism
发布时间:2019年02月25日
发布人:nanyuzi  

New Economic Landscape, New Multilateralism

新型经济格局,新型多边主义

 

By Christine Lagarde, Managing Director, International Monetary Fund

国际货币基金组织总裁 克里斯蒂娜·拉加德

 

October 11, 2018

2018年10月11日

 

Good morning – selamat pagi. Excellencies, Governors, Guests, Colleagues, and Friends: on behalf of the IMF, let me warmly welcome you to our 2018 Annual Meetings.

 

早上好——selamat pagi (印尼语“早安”)!诸位阁下、理事,各位来宾、同仁和朋友:我谨代表国际货币基金组织,热忱欢迎大家前来参加我们2018年年会。

 

Let me acknowledge Petteri Orpo, our new Chair of the IMF Board of Governors; and my good friend Jim Kim, who is leading our sister institution with such great success.

 

请允许我向国际货币基金组织理事会新任主席佩特利·奥尔波以及领导世界银行(国际货币基金组织的姊妹机构)并且建立了丰功伟绩的我的挚友金墉表示感谢。

 

I want to pay special tribute to our Indonesian hosts – especially President Jokowi, Minister Luhut, Minister Sri Mulyani, and Governor Perry – and to the leaders of the ASEAN countries with us this morning.

 

我要向印度尼西亚的东道主——尤其是总统佐科·维多多、部长卢胡特、部长斯莉·穆莉亚妮和央行行长佩里,以及向今天上午出席我们会议的东盟各国领导人致以特别的敬意。

 

We are all aware of Indonesia’s remarkable performance over the last generation – reducing poverty, raising incomes, and integrating rapidly within the global economy.

 

众所周知,上一代印度尼西亚人在减少贫穷、增加收入以及快速融入全球经济方面取得了令人瞩目的成就。

 

In recent days, I have been even more impressed by Indonesia’s courage and resilience in the face of the natural disasters in Lombok and Sulawesi. On behalf of the IMF, let me offer once again my sympathy and condolences to all who have lost loved ones.

 

最近这些天,当代印度尼西亚人在龙目岛和苏拉威西岛自然灾害面前展现出来的勇气和坚韧更是给我留下了难以磨灭的深刻印象。我代表国际货币基金组织,再次向所有在灾害中痛失至爱亲朋的人们表示最深切的同情和哀悼。

 

Indonesia’s leaders have been working day and night to alleviate the suffering brought about by those tragedies. And yet, they have continued to show everyone here their kindness, hospitality, and gracious spirit.

 

为了减轻这些灾难所造成的痛苦,印度尼西亚领导人一直夜以继日地工作,不辞辛劳。然而在这里,在所有人面前,他们所展现出来的仍旧是亲切善良、热情好客的特质。

 

It is the spirit that I saw on the faces of the people of Lombok when I visited a few days ago. It is the spirit of Indonesia.

 

我前几日在走访龙目岛时,从当地人民的面容神态中也看出了这种特质。这就是印度尼西亚的精神。

 

From the bottom of my heart, I thank you. We all thank you.

 

我由衷地感谢你们。我们所有人感谢你们。

 

There is a wonderful tradition in Bali called canang sari, whereby people offer something of value to the gods to give thanks and to ask for continued blessings. I think we are doing something similar here.

 

巴厘岛有着一项优良传统,被称为“扎囊萨利”。按照这一传统,人们以有价之物作为祭品祭拜天神,以示感恩并祈求继续庇佑。我想,我们此时此刻的行动与之不无相似之处。

 

We have come to Bali from all corners of the globe to “make an offering” of our work together – the 189 member countries of the Bretton Woods institutions. It could hardly be more timely.

 

我们从世界各地齐聚巴厘岛,就是为了以我们、布雷顿森林机构189个成员国的共同事业“进行献祭”。所谓“不失时机”,莫过于此。

 

Yes, the global economy continues to grow strongly. But this growth is spread unevenly across regions and people and it is plateauing. Some risks are beginning to materialize – risks to economic stability and prosperity. Risks to the principles and institutions that underpin international cooperation, has delivered so many benefits for so many people for so many years.

 

确实,全球经济增长依然强劲。但是这一增长在不同地区和人口之间分布参差不齐,而且正趋停滞。部分风险开始转变为现实——比如,经济稳定和繁荣面临的风险。又比如,曾经在那么多年里给那么多人带来那么多惠益的国际合作所依据的各项原则和制度面临的风险。

 

Even more recently, it was this cooperation that helped bring the world back from the brink of the great financial crisis. And it continues to drive the amazing success of the ASEAN region today.

 

不久前,国际合作刚刚协助将全球从严重金融危机的边缘拉了回来。眼下,国际合作还在继续推动东盟地区取得令人叹服的成就。

 

Indeed, the cooperative approach taken by ASEAN offers important lessons for us now. Why? Because as we look at the world today, we face the challenge of a new economic landscape – in two dimensions.

 

东盟采取的合作方法如今倒是为我们提供了重要的经验教训。为什么呢?因为放眼今日世界,我们发现自己正面临新型经济格局的挑战——这可以从两个方面来解释。

 

The first dimension, more familiar, includes the monetary, fiscal, and financial layers of our economic interactions. The second dimension, more challenging, comprises inequality, technology, and sustainability. Both dimensions are macro-critical.

 

第一个方面比较常见,包括我们经济互动中的货币、财政和金融层次。第二个方面更具挑战性,包括不平等、技术和可持续性。这两个方面都具有宏观重要意义。

 

In tackling these problems, sound domestic policies are, of course, essential. But navigating this new landscape requires international cooperation – cooperation that is different from the past.

 

若要着手解决这些问题,自然不可缺少健全的国内政策。然而,若要从容应对这一新格局,则必须开展国际合作——不同于以往的国际合作。

 

I call it the “new multilateralism.” It is more inclusive, more people-centered, and more results-oriented.

 

我称之为“新型多边主义”。它更具包容性、更加以人为本,并且更注重结果。

 

Let me explain what I mean.

 

下面,我解释一下这些话的意思。

 

1. Macroeconomic challenges and the new multilateralism

一、宏观经济挑战和新型多边主义

 

First, the more familiar macroeconomic challenges. Think of trade, the very lifeblood of our economies.

 

首先说一说比较常见的宏观经济挑战。以我们的经济命脉——贸易为例。

 

Even though trade cooperation has driven an unprecedented period of growth and prosperity over the last 70-plus years, today it faces a backlash – partly because too many people have been left out. We estimate that escalation of current trade tensions could reduce global GDP by almost one percent over the next two years.

 

贸易合作在过去70多年里推动实现了前所未有的经济增长和繁荣,而今却遭遇到强烈抵制——部分原因在于有太多人落在后面。我们估计,当前贸易紧张局势的升级可能在未来两年导致全球GDP减少将近1%。

 

Clearly, we need to de-escalate these disputes. But also, clearly, we need to reform the global trade system to make it even better, fairer, and stronger for all nations and all people.

 

我们显然必须缓和这些争端。我们也显然必须改革全球贸易制度,使之对所有国家和人民来说更加完善、公平和强大。

 

That means fixing the system, together, not tearing it apart.

 

这意味着齐心协力修复、而不是摧毁这一制度。

 

The same is true for global imbalances. We know that large current account deficits mirror large current account surpluses. So protecting economic stability requires that excess deficit and surplus countries work in a cooperative way. The IMF’s most recent External Sector Report underscored this point.

 

全球失衡问题也是如此。我们知道,大量的经常账户逆差对应着大量的经常账户顺差。因此,保护经济稳定就需要过度逆差国家和过度顺差国家携手合作。国际货币基金组织最近发布的《对外部门报告》强调了这一点。

 

A related challenge is rising vulnerability to debt. We noted recently that public and private debt has hit a record $182 trillion – 224 percent of global GDP, about 60 percent higher than 2007. As financial conditions tighten, the wind could shift – especially for emerging markets – causing a reversal of capital flows. And this could easily accelerate and spill across borders – with real impact on people.

 

相关挑战在于,债务方面的脆弱性不断增加。近来,我们注意到公共和私人债务已经创纪录地达到了182万亿美元,即全球GDP的224%,比2007年的债务水平高60%左右。随着金融条件收紧,形势可能发生转变(尤其是对新兴市场而言),导致资本流动逆转。这种状况很容易加速并产生跨境溢出效应,即对民众产生实际影响。

 

To prevent this, countries’ domestic policies need to be complemented by a global financial safety net. Some of the resources for that could come from regional financing arrangements – the Chiang Mai Initiative, for example. And they could come together with the institution that is often called upon to help the IMF. Ensuring that the Fund has the needed resources requires international cooperation.

 

为了防止上述状况发生,各国在制定国内政策的同时,必须建立一个全球金融安全网以作为补充。这项工作可通过区域融资安排(如“清迈倡议”)获取部分资金。各国不妨与国际货币基金组织、这个常常应各方请求而提供帮助的机构并肩奋斗。为了确保国际货币基金组织拥有所需资源,必须开展国际合作。

 

This principle of cooperation runs through all the Fund’s work – lending, surveillance, capacity development. It runs through all the policy advice and support we provide to you, our members – from financial regulatory reform to public debt transparency; from capital flow management to anti-money laundering.

 

这一合作原则贯穿于国际货币基金组织的各项工作(贷款、监督、能力建设)。它也贯穿于我们向成员国提供的各项政策建议和支持——无论是关于金融监管改革,还是关于公共债务透明度;无论是涉及资本流动管理,还是涉及反洗钱。

 

In today’s hyper-connected world, no country can manage these issues alone. We need cooperation.

 

当今世界互联程度极高,任何国家都无法独自处理这些问题。我们需要合作。

 

And cooperation is in the Fund’s DNA.

 

合作也是国际货币基金组织的基因。

 

2. 21st century challenges and the new multilateralism

二、二十一世纪的挑战和新型多边主义

 

Let me turn to the second dimension of the changing economic landscape – inequality, technology, and sustainability. They are not new issues, but they are more interwoven and fast-moving than ever.

 

接下来说一说具有挑战性的经济格局的第二个方面——不平等、技术和可持续性。它们不是新问题,只是比以往任何时候都更加错综复杂、变动速度更快。

 

Responding to this dimension is vital for economic stability and prosperity. But again, responding to it effectively can only be done through cooperation.

 

这个方面的应对工作对于经济稳定和繁荣至关重要;而要实现有效应对,亦只能依靠合作。

 

Take inequality: IMF research tells us that less inequality is associated with stronger, more sustainable growth. At the same time, excessive inequality is associated with marginalized people, damaged communities, and eroded trust. It is no wonder that so many feel anger and frustration.

 

关于不平等问题:国际货币基金组织的研究表明,不平等程度的降低与更强有力、更可持续的经济增长密不可分。而过度的不平等则与人口边缘化、社区遭破坏以及信任弱化等情况形影不离。无怪乎有这么多人感到愤懑和沮丧。

 

Tackling inequality requires partnership. It requires governments, the private sector, and civil society working together: to eradicate discrimination against women; design the right labor market reforms; and strengthen education, training, and social protection systems – to include people, not exclude them, and prepare them for the coming technological transformation.

 

欲消除不平等,须建立伙伴关系。这要求各国政府、私人部门和民间社会同心协力,以消除对妇女的歧视;设计适当的劳动力市场改革;以及强化教育、培训和社会保障制度——接纳而非排斥民众,并帮助他们为即将到来的技术变革作好准备。

 

Take technology: We know that the digital revolution presents both great promise and great peril. Biotech, robotics, and artificial intelligence will create new industries and jobs. But this transition will also disrupt and disenfranchise.

 

关于技术问题:我们知道,数字革命既承载着巨大的希望,又潜藏着极大的危险。生物科技、机器人技术和人工智能将创造出新的产业和就业岗位。不过,这种转型也会产生扰乱作用,致使人们丧失权利。

 

We must be attentive to the effects on people.

 

我们必须关注对人民的影响。

 

Fintech certainly has the potential to unleash economic dynamism and reduce poverty, especially by providing financial services to the 1.7 billion people who currently have no banking access. [1] But again, it needs to be managed carefully to protect financial stability and safety.

 

毋庸置疑,金融科技能够释放经济活力并减少贫穷,尤其是通过向至今尚未办理银行业务的17亿人口提供金融服务这一途径。[1] 不过,出于维护金融稳定和安全的考虑,我们必须对金融科技加以审慎管理。

 

And since digital means global, this will require a multilateral effort. I am encouraged that at these Meetings – together with the World Bank and other partners – we have launched the Bali Fintech Agenda to help guide our joint endeavors.

 

数字化意味着全球性,这就要求开展多边努力。本次年会期间,我们与世界银行及其他合作伙伴联合推出了巴厘金融科技议程,用以帮助指导我们共同努力;这令我备受鼓舞。

 

Take sustainability: Addressing the increasingly negative effects of climate change is a common priority that can only be met through common action.

 

关于可持续性问题:消除气候变化产生的日趋严重的不利影响是我们的共同优先事项,只能通过共同行动来处理。

 

The same applies to the broader agenda of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), our common aspiration for a better world for all. We recently estimated that the additional spending needed by low-income countries to achieve the SDGs in key sectors such as health, education, water, and infrastructure is about $520 billion per year by 2030.

 

这一点同样适用于更为广泛的可持续发展目标议程——它体现了我们关于“人人享有更美好的世界”的共同愿望。我们最近估计,低收入国家要想实现医疗、教育、用水和基础设施等关键部门的可持续发展目标,每年必须额外支出约5200亿美元,直至2030年。

 

There is no way that gap can be filled without partnership by countries themselves, the private sector, donors, international institutions, and philanthropists. This partnership must extend to more efficient resource use; strengthening revenue collection, including by curbing tax avoidance and evasion; and stamping out corruption.

 

而要填补这一缺口,唯有依靠国家自身、私人部门、捐助者、国际机构和慈善家之间的伙伴关系。这种伙伴关系必须涵盖提高资源利用效率;强化税款征收工作,包括遏制逃避税行为;以及杜绝腐败现象。

 

This kind of partnership is integral to the new multilateralism – not least because tensions arising from exclusion and climate change do not respect national borders. In that sense, solidarity is self-interest.

 

此类伙伴关系是新型多边主义中不可或缺的组成部分,主要原因是排斥行为和气候变化所引发的紧张局势超越了国界。从这个意义上说,团结一致符合各国的自身利益。

 

The new multilateralism must also be more inclusive – open to diverse views and voices. It must be more people-oriented – putting human needs first. And it must be more effective and accountable – delivering results for all.

 

此外,新型多边主义必须更具包容性,即听取不同的意见和呼声;必须更加以人为本,即将人的需求置于首位;还必须更为有效和负责任,即施惠于全民。

 

The IMF is at the heart of this new multilateralism.

 

国际货币基金组织处在新型多边主义的中心位置。

 

I want to take this opportunity to thank my exceptional Management colleagues; our esteemed Executive Directors; and our incredible staff, who work so tirelessly on your behalf.

 

借此机会,我要感谢我们卓尔不凡的管理层同事、备受尊敬的执行董事,以及出类拔萃的工作人员——为了我们大家,他们勤奋工作,孜孜不倦。

 

I want to say thank you in particular to our retiring Economic Counsellor, Maury Obstfeld. He has been an intellectual leader, wise advisor, and dear friend. No one is more committed to multilateralism. Thank you, Maury.

 

我还要特别感谢您——即将卸任的国际货币基金组织经济顾问莫里·奥伯斯费尔德。他是我们智慧的领袖、英明的顾问和亲爱的朋友。若论致力于实现多边主义的努力,无出其右。感谢你,莫里。

 

Conclusion: consider the common good

结语:考虑共同利益

 

Let me conclude:

 

最后,略作总结:

 

I have spoken today about the new economic landscape and the need for a new multilateralism. But I want to finish with some ancient wisdom found in the Bhagavad-Gita.

 

我今天谈的是新型经济格局以及新型多边主义的必要性。可是,我却想以《博伽梵歌》中一句古老的至理名言来结束这个话题。

 

It says: “In all actions, consider the common good.” [2]

 

这句名言就是:“万事皆应虑及公益。”[2]

 

If we do this, if we commit to this common good, the blessing from our work together – from our “offering” – will be returned to benefit not only our generation, but generations to come.

 

如若依言行事,如若致力于实现公益,那么我们通过万众一心、通力合作(也就是我们的“献祭”)获得的庇佑不仅将回馈我们这代人,而且能够福荫子孙后代。

 

Speaking of future generations, I want to acknowledge a few other special people. You will have seen some beautiful images as I spoke. These are the winning photos of an Instagram contest that we held among ASEAN youth. Every picture tells a story of the anxieties and hopes of this region’s rising generation.

 

说到子孙后代,我要感谢另外几位特别来宾。在我刚才讲话的过程中,大家想必都看到了一些美丽的图片。这些图片是我们面向东盟地区青年人举办的Instagram竞赛的获奖摄影作品。每一幅图片都讲述了一个故事,反映了东盟地区下一代人的种种焦虑与希望。

 

So let us recognize these very talented young people. Hira, Kevin, Muhammad, Rexor – please stand up...

 

来认识一下这些才华横溢的青年人吧!希拉、凯文、穆罕默德、拉克瑟——请站起来……

 

And let us remember that the new multilateralism is about their future.

 

不要忘记,新型多边主义关乎他们的将来。

 

Thank you – terima kasih.

 

谢谢大家——terima kasih(印尼语“谢谢”)。

 

 

[1] Global Findex Database, 2018.

 

[1]全球金融包容性指数数据库,2018年。

 

[2] Bhagavad-Gita, 3:20.

 

[2]《博伽梵歌》,3:20。


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