Economists Worry About the Effects of a ‘No-deal’ Brexit

经济学家担忧英国无协议脱欧的影响

 

Concerns are growing that Britain’s withdrawal from the European Union will cause economic problems for both sides.

人们越来越担心英国脱欧会给双方带来经济问题。

Making matters worse is the possibility that some European countries may see their economies decrease in the coming months.

更糟糕的是一些欧洲国家的经济在未来几个月可能会出现下降。

This week, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson moved to suspend Parliament for weeks. The goal of the action is to prevent lawmakers from passing legislation to block the country from leaving the EU without negotiating an agreement. The time limit for “Brexit,” as it is called, is October 31.

英国首相鲍里斯·约翰逊本周让议会休会数周。此举目的是防止议员通过立法阻止该国在未经谈判达成协议的情况下离开欧盟。英国脱欧的时限是10月31日。

Negotiators have failed to reach an agreement in the three years since a majority of the British people voted to leave the EU in 2016. Many experts now believe a so called “no-deal Brexit” is likely to happen.

自2016年大多数英国人投票支持英国退出欧盟以来，谈判人员在3年内未能达成协议。很多专家现在认为可能会发生所谓的“无协议脱欧”。

Economists and business experts say the result of a no-deal Brexit would cause widespread problems and disorder. Problems could include new taxes on trade, slower movement of people and goods at borders, and problems with licenses to do business in other countries.

经济学家和商业专家表示，无协议脱欧将会导致大量的问题和混乱。问题可能包括新贸易税，人员和货物在边境流动变慢，以及在其它国家开展业务的许可证问题。

Brexit timing also an issue

英国脱欧时机也是个问题

Britain’s withdrawal comes at an uncertain time for the EU. The trade dispute between the United States and China has already raised concerns for Europe. And Germany, which depends on exports and manufacturing, is facing the possibility of a recession. Germany could “be hit quite badly if a no-deal Brexit occurs in two months’ time.” That is what Andrew Kenningham said. He is an economist with Capital Economics, a research group in London.

英国退欧正值欧盟的一个不确定时期。中美之间的贸易争端已经引发了欧洲的担忧。依赖出口和制造业的德国正面临潜在的经济衰退。如果英国在两个月内实现无协议脱欧，德国可能“遭受沉重打击”。这是安德鲁·肯宁汉姆的看法。他是伦敦研究机构凯投宏观的经济学家。

Germany is Europe’s largest economy. From April to June, its economy shrank. Many economists believe the same will happen from July to September. That means the country would be in a recession as a no-deal Brexit takes place.

德国是欧洲最大的经济体。该国从4到6月经济有所萎缩。很多经济学家认为7到9月也会发生同样的情况。这意味该国随着英国实现无协议退欧将会陷入经济衰退。

Some economists also predict that Britain could fall into a recession as well. They estimate the British economy would shrink by about three percent.

一些经济学家还预测，英国也可能会陷入衰退。他们估计英国经济将会萎缩3%。

Italy’s economy did not grow at all from April to June and could also face a recession.

意大利的经济在4到6月毫无增长，也可能面临经济衰退。

Supporters of Brexit, however, say companies have had more than three years to prepare. Finally leaving, they say, would remove uncertainty.

然而英国脱欧的支持者表示，各公司已经准备了3年多时间。他们称英国最终脱欧将会消除不确定性。

Nigel Driffield is a professor of international business at Warwick Business School in Britain. He said it could take months or even years for terms of trade to be fully agreed on between Britain and the EU.

奈杰尔·德里菲尔德是英国华为商学院的国际商务学教授。他说，英国和欧盟之间的贸易条款可能需要数月乃至数年才能完全达成一致。

He said some companies could prepare by planning for the future.

他说一些公司可以通过规划未来做好准备。

“However, suppose another (supplier), perhaps in another country, fails to prepare, your part of the value chain still grinds to a halt, and your customer still stops ordering. What do you do?” Driffield asked.

德里菲尔德问到：“然而，假设其它国家的某个供应商未能做好准备，你的产业价值链部分仍然停滞不前，你的客户仍然中断订购，你要怎么办？”

Driffield expects a no-deal Brexit to lead to five to 10 years of negotiations over trade. That is about as long as negotiations with Canada took to complete.

德利菲尔德预计无协议脱欧将会导致5到10年的贸易谈判。这跟完成与加拿大谈判的时间大致相当。

The EU is Britain’s largest trading partner, representing half of its international trade. Trade with Britain is 20 percent of the EU’s trade total. By comparison, 18 percent of Britain’s exports go to the U.S.

欧盟是英国最大的贸易伙伴，占到了该国国际贸易的一半份额。与英国的贸易额占到了欧盟总贸易额的20%。相比之下，英国18%的出口产品流向美国。

Experts say the European countries that would suffer the most from a no-deal Brexit would be smaller ones that ship goods heavily to Britain, like the Netherlands, Belgium and Ireland. Larger economies, like those of Germany and France, would suffer less.

专家表示，欧盟国家中受英国脱欧影响最大的将会是那些货物主要出口到英国的小国家，如荷兰、比利时和爱尔兰。德国和法国等大型经济体受到的损失更少。

The effects outside of Europe are not expected to be very large. However, financial markets could be influenced, weakening the world economy.

预计欧盟以外的影响不会太大。但是金融市场可能会受到影响，从而削弱世界经济。

Possibly as a result of the lack of clarity, the European Central Bank is expected to announce new measures to ease the availability of money as soon as September 12.

可能由于缺乏确定性，预计欧洲央行最快会在9月12日宣布新措施以减少货币供应。

Some experts warn that such measures will help over the short term, but they say politicians must act to reach trade agreements and end disputes.

一些专家警告说，这些措施在短期内会有所帮助，但是他们表示政治家们必须采取行动达成贸易协议并终止争端。

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