An Emperor Penguin Colony in Antarctica Vanishes

南极帝企鹅的危机

 

The Antarctic’s second-largest colony of emperor penguins collapsed in 2016, with more than 10,000 chicks lost, and the population has not recovered, according to a new study.

 

一项新研究显示，南极第二大帝企鹅种群在2016年锐减，超过1万只企鹅幼崽死亡，其种群数量至今仍未恢复。

 

Many of the adults relocated nearby, satellite imagery shows, but the fact that emperor penguins are vulnerable in what had been considered the safest part of their range raises serious long-term concerns, said Phil Trathan, the paper’s co-author and head of conservation biology with the British Antarctic Survey in Cambridge, England.

 

卫星图像显示，许多成年企鹅移居到了附近地区，但事实是，在被认为是它们活动范围内最安全的区域，帝企鹅仍然很脆弱，这引发了严峻的长期担忧，这篇论文的合著者、英国剑桥的英国南极调查局（British Antarctic Survey）保护生物学的负责人菲尔·特拉森（Phil Trathan）说。

 

“That means that these places aren’t as safe as we thought previously,” Dr. Trathan said.

 

“这意味着这些地方并不像我们之前认为的那么安全。”特拉森说。

 

The colony at Halley Bay has all but disappeared, the research team at the British Antarctic Survey said in a statement.

 

英国南极调查局的研究小组在一份声明中称，哈雷湾的栖息地几乎消失了。

 

Emperor penguins – the world’s largest – breed and molt on sea ice, chunks of frozen seawater. Awkward on land, they cannot climb icy cliffs and so are vulnerable to warming weather and high winds whipping across the ice. Under the influence of the strongest El Niño in 60 years, September 2015 was a particularly stormy month in the area of Halley Bay in Antarctica, with heavy winds and record-low sea ice.

 

帝企鹅——世界上最大的企鹅——在大块被冻住的海冰上繁殖和换毛。它们在陆地上很笨拙，无法攀爬冰崖，因此很容易受到气候变暖和大风掠过冰面的影响。受60年来最强的厄尔尼诺现象影响，2015年9月是南极洲哈雷湾地区暴风雨特别强的一个月，狂风四起，海冰创下历史新低。

 

The penguins generally stayed there from April until December when their chicks fledged, or had grown their feathers, but the storm occurred before the chicks were old enough.

 

从4月开始，企鹅一般就会在那里待到12月，等它们的幼崽长大一点，或者长出羽毛。但风暴发生时它们还不够大。

 

Those conditions, Dr. Trathan said, appeared to have led to the loss of about 14,500 to 25,000 eggs or chicks that first year and the colony has not rebounded. The study called the three-year decline unprecedented: “three years of almost total breeding failure.”

 

特拉森说，这些情况似乎已经导致大约14500到25000只蛋或雏鸟在第一年就夭折了，它们的种群至今没有复苏。该研究称，三年的下降是前所未有的：“繁殖几乎完全失败的三年。”

 

Still, the population in Halley Bay represents only about 8 percent of the world’s population of emperor penguins, Dr. Trathan said, so the loss does not pose a threat to the future of the species. Roughly 130,000 to 250,000 breeding pairs of emperor penguins live in 54 colonies worldwide, he said.

 

尽管如此，特拉森说，哈雷湾的企鹅群体只占世界帝企鹅数量的8%左右，因此，这一损失不会对帝企鹅的未来构成威胁。他说约有13万到25万对可繁衍后代的帝企鹅生活在全世界54个栖息地。

 

British researchers have been studying penguins in the area since 1956 and had never seen a decline of this magnitude, he said.

 

他说，自1956年以来，英国研究人员一直在研究该地区的企鹅，但从未见过如此大规模的减少。

 

Other scientists have projected drastic declines in emperor penguin populations by the end of the century, because of climate change. Stephanie Jenouvrier, an associate researcher at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution in Massachusetts, has predicted a 30 percent worldwide drop in coming decades. Her model did not include significant events like the 2015 stormy season, which will most likely make the situation worse, she said.

 

其他科学家预测，由于气候变化，到本世纪末，帝企鹅的数量将急剧下降。马萨诸塞州伍兹霍尔海洋研究所（Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution）的副研究员斯蒂芬妮·杰诺威耶（Stephanie Jenouvrier）预测，未来几十年在全球范围内将下降30%。她说，她的模型还没有包括2015年风暴季这样的重大事件，这很可能会让情况变得更糟。

 

Several researchers said they were encouraged by satellite evidence suggesting that many of the animals were able to relocate to a colony called Dawson-Lambton, about 35 miles to the south, which has seen a more than tenfold increase in penguins in the last few years.

 

一些研究人员表示，卫星证据显示，许多企鹅能够迁徙到南方35英里（约合56公里）外的一个名为道森-拉姆顿的栖息地，过去几年，那里的企鹅数量增加了十倍以上，这让他们感到鼓舞。

 

“It is a very huge movement and a huge number of birds that were able to move between two colonies after an extreme event,” Dr. Jenouvrier said. “I think this is very cool to be able to show that.”

 

“这是一次非常大的迁徙，在一次极端事件之后，还有数量庞大的企鹅能在两个群落之间移动，”杰诺威耶说，“我认为能够看到这一点非常酷。”

 

Heather Lynch, an associate professor of ecology and evolution at Stony Brook University in New York, viewed that relocation as “extremely hopeful,” a sign that the animals would be able to adapt to climate change at least in the short term. In past models, she said, researchers often assumed the penguins would not find another home.

 

纽约州立大学石溪分校（Stony Brook University）研究生态学与进化的副教授希瑟·林奇（Heather Lynch）认为，这种迁徙“可能性非常大”，它表明这些动物至少在短期内能够适应气候变化。她说，在过去的模型中，研究人员常常假设企鹅无法找到另一个家。

 

“My hope is that there are refuges that they can move to for at least some period of time and that might buffer some of the most dramatic effects of climate change,” Dr. Lynch said.

 

“我的希望是，还有一些避难所在至少一段时间内可以让它们搬过去，这样或许可以缓冲气候变化带来的一些最显著的影响。”林奇说。

 

The new study also shows the power of satellite data to track species in the most inaccessible parts of the globe. “At least we have a means to keep an eye on these birds from the world’s more remote places,” she said.

 

这项新研究还显示了在地球上最难到达的地区，卫星数据追踪物种的能力。“至少我们有办法监视这些来自世界上比较偏远地方的鸟类。”她说。

 

Still, the Halley Bay decline in population is troublesome because the drop-off was rapid, rather than a gradual decrease in the face of climate change.

 

尽管如此，哈雷湾的企鹅数量下降仍然令人担忧，因为在面对气候变化时，它的下降速度很快，而不是逐步减少。

 

“You don’t know how close to the cliff you are until it’s too late,” Dr. Lynch said, “and you can’t assume you’ll be able to walk back from the cliff when you get there.”

 

“你不会知道自己离悬崖有多近，直到为时已晚，”林奇说，“你也不能想当然地认为当你到走到那里时，还能从悬崖上走回来。”

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