双语资料:国际货币基金组织代理总裁大卫·利普顿在布雷顿森林体系75周年纪念会议上的讲话
发布时间:2019年12月19日
发布人:nanyuzi  

The Future of Bretton Woods

布雷顿森林体系的未来

 

Keynote Speech by David Lipton, IMF Acting Managing Director at the Bretton Woods: 75 Years Later – Thinking About the Next 75 Conference Hosted by the Banque de France

国际货币基金组织代理总裁大卫·利普顿在布雷顿森林体系75周年纪念会议上的讲话

 

16 July 2019

2019年7月16日

 

Introduction

引言

 

Good afternoon! Thank you, Governor Villeroy de Galhau, for convening such an eminent group to celebrate the 75th anniversary of the Bretton Woods Institutions.

下午好!维勒鲁瓦·德加洛行长,感谢您召集众多杰出人士庆祝布雷顿森林机构诞辰75周年。

 

I know Christine Lagarde was looking forward to addressing you today. But once again the IMF is in a time of transition. Fortunately, we are accustomed to that. A key theme of my remarks today is that the IMF is an institution built to adapt to change.

我知道克里斯蒂娜·拉加德女士期盼能到场致辞。但正如各位所知,国际货币基金组织正处在过渡时期。幸运的是,我们对此已经习惯。今天我演讲的主题是,国际货币基金组织是一个为适应变化而建立的机构。

 

Don’t worry – in Christine’s honor, I will be sure to quote from one or two historical figures. 

别担心,为了向克里斯蒂娜表达敬意,我一定会引用一两位历史人物的名言。

 

I am especially pleased that two former IMF Managing Directors, Jacques de Larosière and Michel Camdessus, are with us today. I served under both early in my IMF career. Two men who know quite a bit about change at the IMF.

让我感到尤为高兴的是,两位国际货币基金组织前总裁雅克·德拉罗西埃和米歇尔·康德苏也来到现场。在我国际货币基金组织职业生涯的早期,我曾在两位总裁手下任职。他们都对国际货币基金组织的变化了解甚多。

 

Despite 75 years of history, the Bretton Woods Institutions have aged gracefully. Our collaboration is as strong as ever. I would like to thank David Malpass and Roberto Azevedo for continuing our excellent relationships.

尽管有着75年的历史,布雷顿森林机构已经变老,但不失优雅。我们一如既往地紧密合作,我想感谢大卫·马尔帕斯和罗伯托·阿泽维多,感谢你们延续这段非凡的合作关系。

 

Speaking of famous partnerships, those of you who have seen the most recent edition of the IMF’s Finance and Development quarterly may have noticed a conversation Madame Lagarde had with John Maynard Keynes.

谈到知名的伙伴关系,在座各位如果读过最近一期国际货币基金组织《金融与发展》季刊,可能注意到了拉加德女士和约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯先生的对话。

 

In this imagined meeting, Lord Keynes and Madame Lagarde enjoyed a chat about the Fund.

在这次想象的会面中,凯恩斯勋爵和拉加德女士围绕国际货币基金组织展开了交谈。

 

He was glad the Fund has successfully adapted to many challenges over the years and, most of all, that our commitment to pursuing economic and financial stability in a multilateral and rules-based setting has held firm.

他很高兴看到国际货币基金组织多年以来成功地适应了很多挑战,最令他高兴的是,我们坚定地通过多边和规则导向的安排致力于实现经济和金融稳定。

 

What if we could hop in a time machine – perhaps borrowed from Keynes’ friend H.G. Wells – and leap forward 25, 50, or even 75 years ahead from the present? What would the world and the IMF look like?

如果我们能跳进一台时间机器——也许是从凯恩斯的朋友赫伯特·乔治·威尔斯那里借来的——从现在起向未来穿越25年,50年,甚至75年,世界和国际货币基金组织将会是怎样的呢?

 

I would hope that Lord Keynes would still recognize us – promoting global growth and stability and adapting to the needs of our members. That forward journey is what I would like to discuss with you today.

我希望凯恩斯勋爵仍然认同我们——促进全球增长,维护全球稳定,适应成员国的需要。今天,我想和大家探讨的就是这个“未来的旅程”。

 

But first, let us briefly consider the past.

但首先,让我们简短地回顾过去。

 

The Past 75 years

过去的七十五年

 

The architects of Bretton Woods were deeply influenced by events between the two world wars, when multilateralism and the liberal international order broke down amid protectionism, the malfunction of the gold standard, and competitive devaluations.

布雷顿森林体系的架构受到两次世界大战期间多重事件的深刻影响,包括多边主义和自由国际秩序在保护主义背景下的崩溃,金本位运转失灵和竞争性贬值。

 

The implosion of world trade deepened the Great Depression and ultimately gave fuel to fascism, communism, and war.

世界贸易内爆导致大萧条加剧,最终催生了法西斯主义、共产主义和战争。

 

But in the aftermath, lessons were drawn. There was a new-found appreciation of how much national and global economic interests were interconnected.

然而不幸过后,人们吸取了教训,开始发现并认识到各国和全球经济利益在何种程度上紧密相联。

 

The founders at Bretton Woods resolved that economic development and global financial stability are necessary conditions for peace.

布雷顿森林体系的创始人坚定地相信,经济发展和全球金融稳定是维护和平的必要条件。

 

In the words of Queen Elizabeth II, they “built an assembly of international institutions to ensure that the horrors of conflict would never be repeated.”

正如伊丽莎白二世所说,他们“构建了一个由国际机构组成的大会,以确保可怕的冲突不会重演。”

 

It was the original multilateral moment.

这是多边主义的开始。

 

We know the results. Tremendous gains in human wellbeing – life expectancy, educational attainment, child and maternal mortality. Global GDP per capita is five-fold higher than in 1945. Over one billion people breaking free of poverty. And billions more reaping the mutual benefits generated from trade.

结果众所周知。人类福祉显著改善——体现在预期寿命、教育水平、儿童和产妇死忙率等多个方面。全球人均GDP相比1945年增长了五倍。十亿多人口摆脱贫穷。另外几十亿人口在贸易中实现互利互惠。

 

I have been proud to spend much of my career at the institution that has been central to this story.

国际货币基金组织在这段历史中发挥了核心作用,能在此度过多年职业生涯,我感到非常骄傲。

 

Over the years, there has never been a Bretton Woods II, yet we are a very different institution than at our founders’ time. So how did that happen? It is because we continuously adapt to the changing circumstances around us.

这些年中,布雷顿森林体系是独一无二的,但与创始的年代相比,我们已经大不相同。为什么会这样呢?因为我们继续适应周边不断变化的环境。

 

Lord Keynes would have been pleased to see the IMF pivot from the Bretton Woods system of fixed exchange rates to the era of flexible rates.

凯恩斯勋爵很高兴地看到,国际货币基金组织从布雷顿森林体系的固定汇率体系转型至灵活汇率的时代。

 

And how we addressed the Latin America debt crises, starting during the tenure of Jacques de Larosière.

以及我们如何应对雅克·德拉罗西埃任期内爆发的拉丁美洲债务危机。

 

Then how we helped to transition economies emerging from communism and enabled many finally to join the Fund; and how we have addressed what Michel Camdessus dubbed the 21st century crises – those that arose from the explosion of cross-border capital flows.

而后,我们如何帮助转型经济体走出共产主义,并确保很多经济体最终成为国际货币基金组织成员国;以及我们如何应对米歇尔·康德苏所说的“21世纪的危机”——跨境资本流动爆发引发的危机。

 

As we look to the next 75 years, the IMF will need to continue to adapt. That is already well underway.

展望下一个75年,国际货币基金组织将需要继续适应新环境。这项工作已经开始。

 

Let us consider what we may face in the decades ahead.

让我们思考未来几十年可能面对的情况。

 

First, how shifting economic and financial power will affect the role of the Fund.

首先,经济和金融力量的转移如何影响国际货币基金组织的作用?

 

Second, how technological change will transform economies, creating new opportunities and policy challenges, including in financial services.

其次,技术变化将如何改变经济,带来新的机遇和政策挑战,包括金融服务领域?

 

Third, how new threats to multilateralism will test whether the Bretton Woods Institutions remain relevant.

第三,多边主义的新威胁将给布雷顿森林机构的相关性带来怎样的考验?

 

Major Shifts in Economic Activity

经济活动的主要变化

 

Let me first turn to the ongoing shifts in the global economic landscape.

让我先来谈谈全球经济格局当前发生的变化。

 

Since those 44 country delegations met at Bretton Woods, the IMF has grown and now has 189 members, almost the entire world economy.

自44个国家的代表团在布雷顿森林会面以来,国际货币基金组织不断成长,目前共有189个成员国,几乎包括了整个世界经济。

 

That means while we can address issues on a global scale, the roles and interests of our membership are also changing.

这意味着,我们得以在全球层面应对问题的同时,成员国的作用和利益也在快速变化。

 

The rise of China and other economies fundamentally alters the global landscape. As emerging market and developing economies grow and incomes converge, the share of advanced economies in global output is expected to fall from more than one-half to about one-third over the next 25 years.

中国和其他经济体的崛起从根本上改变了全球格局。随着新兴市场和发展中经济体增长以及收入趋同,发达经济体占全球产出的比重预计将从目前的一半以上降至25年后的约三分之一。

 

Aging populations in the advanced economies will gradually consume savings even as younger countries need to finance investments. And in the not-too-distant future, rising life expectancy and declining fertility rates likely will bring the issues of aging to the entire world.

发达经济体的人口老龄化将逐步消耗储蓄,人口更年轻的国家需要为投资筹集资金。在不久的将来,预期寿命延长和生育率下降可能使老龄化问题扩展至整个世界。

 

This will have profound implications for global trade and capital flows.

这将对全球贸易和资本流动产生深刻影响。

 

The hubs of economic activity will shift over the coming decades. New financial centers will grow in importance. New reserve currencies may eventually emerge.

经济活动的中心很可能在未来几十年中转移,新金融中心的重要性将会提升,新储备货币可能最终出现。

 

Throughout all that, it is our duty to maintain an international monetary system stable and robust enough to facilitate the economic adjustments accompanying these transitions.

尽管如此,我们有责任维系足够稳定和稳健的国际货币体系,进而促进与转型相伴的经济调整。

 

Free trade, flexible exchange rates, and non-disruptive capital movements are essential ingredients for a thriving global economy. That is why the role of multilateral institutions – and especially the IMF – will be more relevant than ever. If we continue to adapt.

自由贸易、灵活汇率和不具破坏性的资本流动是全球经济繁荣不可或缺的要素。因此,多边机构——尤其是国际货币基金组织——将比以往发挥更加重要的作用。前提是我们继续顺应形势并做出调整。

 

Fortunately, our founders had the wisdom to embed in our governance a quota-based system. They recognized the illusory logic of one-country one-vote for an organization like ours. Over our history and on into the future, this approach allows governance to adjust to the rising prominence, interests, and responsibilities of fast-growing members. Many international organizations do not have this built-in flexibility and find that some members feel they lack the influence they deserve.

幸运的是,我们的创始人非常智慧,他们在治理中引入基于份额的机制。他们意识到,对类似于国际货币基金组织的机构,一国一票的逻辑不切合实际。不管在过去还是将来,这种基于份额的机制允许我们根据快速成长的成员国日益提升的重要性、利益和责任来调整治理。很多国际机构不具有这种内在的灵活性,因此,部分成员国认为其缺乏应该享有的影响力。

 

Yet the Fund’s governance must continue to evolve further. For that to happen we must remain a quota-based institution. And we must reckon with the fact that our formulae have not fully kept pace. We cannot expect to retain the global reach and resources that we need unless countries gaining in economic importance and ready to take on commensurate responsibility gain appropriately in their say at the Fund.

然而,国际货币基金组织的治理必须进一步发展演变。为此,我们要继续沿用基于份额的机制。同时,我们必须考虑到份额公式不够与时俱进的事实。要维护国际货币基金组织的全球影响力和拥有的资源,必须合理提高那些经济重要性提升且准备承担相应责任的国家的话语权。

 

Similarly, we have to continuously align the Fund’s tools and policies with these changing economic realities. The inclusion of the renminbi in the SDR basket a few years ago demonstrated our ability to change with the times.

同理,我们需要继续调整国际货币基金组织的工具和政策,使其适应不断变化的经济现实。几年前人民币纳入特别提款权篮子显示了我们与时俱进的能力。

 

The bottom line is this: as economic power becomes more diverse and diffuse, retaining a focus on common challenges will become more difficult. So, the IMF’s fundamental role as global convener, trusted advisor, and financial firefighter will become even more important in the days ahead.

最根本的是,随着经济力量更加多元化和分散化,对共同挑战保持关注将变得愈加困难。因此,国际货币基金组织作为全球召集者、值得信赖的顾问和金融消防员,其根本作用将在未来变得更加重要。

 

Adapting to New Technology

适应新技术

 

But what about the other changes in the global economy?

全球经济其他变化的影响?

 

Technological advances offer enormous opportunities to accelerate productivity and lift incomes. But they also lead to structural changes – creating some jobs while displacing others.

技术进步为提振生产率和增加收入提供了大量机遇。但它们也带来了结构性变化——创造了部分工作,同时取代了其他工作。

 

Lord Keynes himself warned back in the 1930s about the possibility of “technological unemployment.” But he believed it would lead to a high-income world where people would choose more leisure time over work. 

凯恩斯勋爵本人也曾在二十世纪三十年代发出关于“技术失业”可能性的警告。但他相信,这将塑造一个高收入的世界,让人们选择花更多时间休闲而非工作。

 

This turned out differently. People are anxious that constant technological advances – think about artificial intelligence – will threaten their jobs and incomes. I will come to the future of work in a moment. Let me first address a different dimension of technology – innovation in financial services.

然而,事与愿违。人们感到焦虑,担心技术的持续进步——如人工智能——会威胁他们的工作岗位和收入。稍后我会谈到未来的工作。现在,我先谈谈技术的另一个层面——金融服务创新。

 

What we call “Fintech” offers the potential to significantly increase efficiency and transparency in the financial sector. It poses challenges for established players, and regulators trying to address new sources of risk.

我们口中的“金融科技”有潜力显著提高金融部门的效率和透明度。这给现有的参与者和努力应对新型风险的监管当局带来了挑战。

 

There are very real downsides to these developments, including significant threats from cyber-attacks and cyber-criminals. Yet, we are on the cusp of a transformation that could bring enormous benefits.

这些发展会带来真实的负面效果,包括网络攻击和网络犯罪的严重威胁。然而,我相信我们正处于改变的边缘,这能带来巨大的效益。

 

By fostering competition, we can help re-orient the financial services industry closer to better serve the real economy and foster job creation.

通过促进竞争,我们能帮助整个金融服务行业调整方向,使其功能更接近于服务实体经济和创造就业。

 

Look at Fintech’s capacity to end financial exclusion for the 1.7 billion people in developing countries who have no access to banking.

例如,金融科技能够消除金融排斥,惠及发展中国家接触不到银行服务的17亿人口。

 

Much has been said about the impact of mobile banking in Africa, a continent that needs to create 20 million jobs a year in the decades to come, just to keep up with population growth.

关于手机银行对非洲的影响,人们已经谈论了很多;为与人口增长保持同步,在未来几十年中,非洲每年需要创造2000万个工作岗位。

 

That is why, together with the World Bank, we developed the Bali Fintech Agenda, a framework to help our member countries take advantage of innovation, but also better cope with the new risks.

这就是为什么我们与世界银行共同制定了《巴厘金融科技议程》,建立了帮助成员国利用创新并更好地应对新型风险的框架。

 

One aspect of particular relevance has been the nascent development of central bank digital currencies, and the possible emergence of privately-backed “stablecoins” for digital payments. This was highlighted by the recent attention given to Facebook’s Libra. These new instruments aim to do for payments what the internet has done for information: make transactions secure, instantaneous, and nearly free.

一个尤其相关的领域是新诞生的央行数字货币,以及出现私人支持的数字支付“稳定币”的可能性。近日,各界对脸书公司Libra的关注也强调了这一点。这些新工具旨在以互联网改变信息的方式来改变支付,确保交易安全保密、实时完成且近乎免费。

 

Yesterday we published a new paper that highlights the benefits, risks, and regulatory issues that are likely to emerge in the years ahead with digital currencies.

昨天,我们发表了一篇新论文,强调了未来数年中数字货币可能带来的效益、风险和监管问题。

 

The benefits are clear – ease of use, lower costs, and global reach. But what about the risks?

其效益显而易见——使用便利,成本更低,且能够辐射全球。那么,它存在哪些风险?

 

We have identified several: the potential emergence of new monopolies, with implications for how personal data is monetized; the impact on weaker currencies and the expansion of dollarization; the opportunities for illicit activities; threats to financial stability; and the challenges of corporates issuing and thus earning large sums of money – previously the realm of central banks.

我们识别了几类风险:出现潜在的新垄断企业,会影响个人数据货币化的方式;冲击较为弱势的货币和美元化的扩张;为非法活动创造机会;威胁金融稳定以及企业发行货币并赚取大量利润(此前为央行的职能领域)的挑战。

 

So, regulators – and the IMF – will need to step up. We need to create an environment where the benefits of this technology can be reaped while the risks are minimized.

因此,监管当局——以及国际货币基金组织——应该挺身而出。我们需要创造良好的环境,既能利用这项技术的益处,也能使风险最小化。

 

This is what I mean when I talk about an IMF that is always adapting. When a challenge affects our members’ economic well-being, we must be ready to be there.

这就是我说“国际货币基金组织时刻在适应新环境”的含义。当一个挑战影响所有成员国的经济福祉时,我们必须做好采取行动的准备。

 

Tackling Threats to Global Prosperity

应对全球繁荣面临的威胁

 

While we adapt to technological transformations, we cannot lose sight of the other pressing concerns.

在适应技术变化的同时,我们不能忽视其他引发担忧的紧迫事项。

 

Our world is experiencing a broader set of changes that are contributing to a breakdown of trust and social cohesion, especially in the advanced economies. Trade and globalization – along with technology – have reshaped the economic map, and the fallout is front and center here in Europe, as well as in the United States: rising anger, political polarization, and populism. We are at risk of what one could call a reverse Bretton Woods moment.

我们的世界正在经历一系列更广泛的变革,这导致了信任和社会凝聚力的瓦解,尤其是在发达经济体。贸易和全球化——以及技术——重塑了经济版图,其最重要的结果在美国和欧洲体现为:愤怒情绪加剧、政治极化和民粹主义。我们面临着可以称为“布雷顿森立体系倒退时刻”的风险。

 

Part of the problem is the rise of excessive inequality. This is both a national and a global challenge. Although poverty rates have declined worldwide since 1980, the top-tenth of the top one percent worldwide has garnered roughly the same economic benefits that have accrued to the bottom 50 percent.

该问题部分体现为过度不平等的加剧。这既是各国面临的挑战,也是全球性挑战。尽管全球贫困率自二十世纪80年代以来不断下降,但全球收入最高的1%人口所获得的经济好处几乎相当于收入最低的50%的人口所得好处的总和。

 

Moreover, for many developing countries, convergence with high-income countries has stalled. Just four years ago, we estimated it would take about half a century for low-income countries to reach advanced economy living standards. If global integration falters, it may take much longer.

此外,对很多发展中国家而言,与高收入国家趋同的进程已经停滞。仅在四年前,我们估计,低收入国家实现发达经济体的生活水平约需要半个世纪。如果全球一体化止步不前,这可能要花更长的时间。

 

Some see an inherent flaw in capitalism. I do not agree. Capitalism rewards risk-taking. It has been the engine behind so much of the success we have experienced. But it is an imperfect system in need of a course correction.

有人认为资本主义存在内在缺陷。我不认同。资本主义奖励冒险,是我们获得的无数成功背后的引擎。但它也是不完美的制度,需要校正方向。

 

We must prove that the benefits of globalization outweigh the costs and that integration can help to address our shared challenges. But right now, in many areas, we are losing that argument. So, we need a roadmap. Where can we start?

我们必须证明全球化的效益超出其成本,且一体化有助于解决我们共同面临的挑战。但现在,在很多领域中,我们都输掉了这场辩论。因此,我们需要一份路线图。应该从何开始?

 

First, we can use fiscal policy to help address inequalities. This has been a part of the economic toolkit for many years, but the Fund recently developed a framework for social spending to help our member countries in the years to come.

第一,我们可以使用财政政策来帮助应对不平等现象。这是经济工具箱中多年以来的一个组成部分;但国际货币基金组织近期还构建了社会支出框架,旨在将来为成员国提供帮助。

 

While we help countries raise the revenues needed for future spending, it is essential to ensure fairness and a level the playing field. That means that in the realm of global corporate taxation we must close loopholes, forestall profit shifting, and avoid a race to the bottom.

在帮助各国筹集未来支出所需的收入时,必须确保公正性,构建公平的竞争环境。这意味着,在全球企业税收领域,我们必须填补漏洞,阻止利润转移,避免“逐底竞争”。

 

A related point. We need to fight against illicit financial flows and money laundering because corruption undermines trust in all facets of society.

与之相关的是,我们需要打击违法的资金流动和洗钱活动,因为腐败会侵蚀社会所有领域的信任。

 

Another important priority is modernizing the international trade system, including in services and e-commerce. This will help reduce the trade tensions that threaten to undermine global growth.

另一个重要的优先事项是构建现代化的国际贸易体系,包括服务业和电子商务。这将有助于缓解可能破坏全球增长的贸易紧张局势。

 

When it comes to global growth, every country should empower women. Back at Bretton Woods, the role of women was limited to secretarial support. Much has changed since then, thank goodness. But about 90 percent of countries still have legal barriers to female economic participation. Realizing the massive potential of women is an economic no-brainer and must be a priority.

为促进全球增长,各国应发挥女性的权能。在布雷顿森林的早期时代,女性的角色仅限于提供文秘支持。此后,所幸情况大有改观。但在超过90%的国家,女性的经济参与仍然面临法律障碍。实现女性的巨大潜力是一件容易采取的经济举措,必须成为优先事项。

 

And last – but certainly not least – we must accelerate our response to climate change. Climate change presents one of the greatest challenges of the century – as recognized in this city in 2015.

最后——但同等重要的是——我们需要加快应对气候变化。气候变化是本世纪最严峻的挑战之一——2015年,我们在这座城市达成了这个共识。

 

The economic consequences if we don’t act will be dire.

如不采取行动,我们将承受严重的经济后果。

 

That is why we are increasingly engaging our membership on mitigating and adapting to climate change, advising on energy subsidies and carbon pricing. We are also helping countries to enhance their resilience to natural disasters.

因此,我们日益加强与成员国在缓解和适应气候变化方面的交流和合作,为能源补贴和碳定价提供建议。我们还帮助各国提高应对自然灾害的韧性。

 

Now, Lord Keynes might be surprised at some of this, but I think he would be pleased that the Fund is a forward-looking problem solver.

现在,凯恩斯勋爵可能对部分发展感到惊讶,但我认为,他会很高兴看到国际货币基金组织能够前瞻性地解决问题。

 

Conclusion

结语

 

Now, I promised I would try to follow Madame Lagarde’s lead. So, in honor of our hosts, let me borrow from Alexandre Dumas, who wrote: “All human wisdom is contained in two words – wait and hope.”

现在,我承诺试着遵循拉加德女士的惯例。因此,为了感谢主办方,请允许我借用亚历山大·仲马的话,“人类的所有智慧都凝结为两个词——等待和希望”。

 

If you will allow me a suggestion for this Bretton Woods moment:

但请允许我为此时此刻的布雷顿森林体系提一个建议:

 

Hope, yes. But this is not a time to wait.

“希望,没错。但是,时不我待。”

 

In the years ahead, we must all act – and act together – staying true to the values of our founders while pursuing the goals of stability, prosperity, and peace.

在未来的时间里,我们必须采取行动——共同行动——秉承我们创始人的价值观,追求稳定、繁荣与和平的目标。

 

Thank you very much.

非常感谢!