The World Economy: Synchronized Slowdown, Precarious Outlook
世界经济：同步减缓，前景堪忧
Gita Gopinath
吉塔·戈皮纳斯
The global economy is in a synchronized slowdown and we are, once again, downgrading growth for 2019 to 3 percent, its slowest pace since the global financial crisis. Growth continues to be weakened by rising trade barriers and increasing geopolitical tensions. We estimate that the US-China trade tensions will cumulatively reduce the level of global GDP by 0.8 percent by 2020. Growth is also being weighed down by country-specific factors in several emerging market economies, and by structural forces, such as low productivity growth and aging demographics in advanced economies.
全球经济在同步减缓，我们再次下调了2019年增长预测，目前其降至3%，是全球金融危机以来的最低增速。贸易壁垒增加，地缘政治紧张局势加剧，进一步削弱了经济增长。我们估计，美国与中国之间的贸易紧张局势到2020年将导致全球GDP水平累计下降0.8%。一些新兴市场经济体的本国特有因素以及发达经济体的结构性因素（如生产率增长缓慢和人口老龄化）都对经济增长造成拖累。
In the October World Economic Outlook, we are projecting a modest improvement in global growth to 3.4 percent in 2020, another downward revision of 0.2 percent from our April projections. However, unlike the synchronized slowdown, this recovery is not broad-based and remains precarious.
在10月期《世界经济展望》中，我们预测全球增长率2020年将小幅提高到3.4%，相比4月的预测也下调了0.2个百分点。然而，与经济的同步减缓不同，这种复苏并非基础广泛，仍然不稳定。
The weakness in growth is driven by a sharp deterioration in manufacturing activity and global trade, with higher tariffs and prolonged trade policy uncertainty damaging investment and demand for capital goods. In addition, the automobile industry is contracting owing also to a variety of factors, such as disruptions from new emission standards in the euro area and China that have had durable effects. Overall, trade volume growth in the first half of 2019 has fallen to 1 percent, the weakest level since 2012.
造成增长疲软的原因是，制造业活动和全球贸易急剧恶化，关税的提高和持续的贸易政策不确定性损害了投资和对资本品的需求。此外，在若干因素的作用下（如欧元区和中国实行新的排放标准带来干扰，产生了持久影响），汽车行业在收缩。总体而言，2019年上半年的贸易量增长速度下降到1%，是2012年以来的最低水平。
In contrast to extremely weak manufacturing and trade, the services sector continues to hold up almost across the globe. This has kept labor markets buoyant and wage growth and consumption spending healthy in advanced economies. There are, however, some initial signs of softening in the services sector in the United States and euro area.
与制造业和贸易极度疲软形成对照，服务业几乎在全球范围内都维持了良好的表现。因此，发达经济体的劳动力市场依然活跃，工资增长和消费支出依然保持健康态势。然而，美国和欧元区的服务业初步出现了一些趋弱迹象。
Monetary policy has played a significant role in supporting growth. In the absence of inflationary pressures and facing weakening activity, major central banks have appropriately eased to reduce downside risks to growth and to prevent de-anchoring of inflation expectations. In our assessment, in the absence of such monetary stimulus, global growth would be lower by 0.5 percentage points in both 2019 and 2020.
货币政策对支持经济增长发挥了重要作用。由于不存在通胀压力，并且经济活动在减弱，主要中央银行以适当幅度放松了货币政策，以缓解经济增长面临的下行风险，并防止通胀预期“脱锚”。根据我们的评估，如果不采取这种货币刺激，2019年和2020年的全球增长率都将下降0.5个百分点。
Advanced economies continue to slow towards their lower long-term potential. Growth has been downgraded to 1.7 percent for 2019 (compared to 2.3 percent in 2018) and it is projected to stay at this level in 2020. Strong labor market conditions and policy stimulus are helping to offset the negative impact from weaker external demand for these economies.
发达经济体的增长继续减缓至趋于长期潜在水平。2019年的增长预测下调到1.7%（2018年增长率为2.3%），预计2020年将维持在这一水平。在这些经济体，强劲的劳动力市场状况和政策刺激帮助抵消了外部需求减弱的不利影响。
Growth in emerging market and developing economies has also been revised down to 3.9 percent for 2019 (compared to 4.5 percent in 2018) owing in part to trade and domestic policy uncertainties, and to a structural slowdown in China.
新兴市场和发展中经济体2019年的增长预测下调到3.9%（2018年增长率为4.5%），原因包括贸易和国内政策不确定性，以及中国经济增长的结构性减缓。
The uptick in global growth for 2020 is driven by emerging market and developing economies that are projected to experience a growth rebound to 4.6 percent. About half of this rebound is driven by recoveries or shallower recessions in stressed emerging markets, such as Argentina, Iran, and Turkey, and the rest by recoveries in countries where growth slowed significantly in 2019 relative to 2018, such as Brazil, India, Mexico, Russia, and Saudi Arabia. There is, however, considerable uncertainty surrounding these recoveries, especially when major economies like the United States, Japan, and China are expected to slow further into 2020.
2020年全球增长前景的改善是由新兴市场和发展中经济体驱动的，预计这些经济体的增长率将回升到4.6%。这种回升有一半是由于承压经济体（如阿根廷、伊朗和土耳其）经济开始复苏或衰退程度减弱，另一半是由于2019年增长相比2018年显著减缓的国家（如巴西、印度、墨西哥、俄罗斯和沙特阿伯）出现复苏。然而，这种复苏有相当大的不确定性，特别是考虑到美国、日本和中国等主要经济体的增长在2020年预计将进一步放缓。
Escalating risks
风险不断加剧
In addition, there are several downside risks to growth. Heightened trade and geopolitical tensions, including Brexit-related risks, could further disrupt economic activity, and derail an already fragile recovery in emerging market economies and the euro area. This could lead to an abrupt shift in risk sentiment, financial disruptions, and a reversal in capital flows to emerging market economies. In advanced economies, low inflation could become entrenched and constrain monetary policy space further into the future, limiting its effectiveness.
此外，经济增长面临一些下行风险。贸易和地缘政治紧张局势的加剧，包括与英国退出欧盟有关的风险，可能进一步干扰经济活动，并导致新兴市场经济体和欧元区已经脆弱的复苏出现脱轨。这可能引起风险情绪的急剧变化、金融动荡以及新兴市场经济体资本流入的逆转。在发达经济体，低通胀可能变得根深蒂固，使今后更长时间内的货币政策空间受到制约，从而损害其有效性。
Policies to reignite growth
重振增长的政策
To rejuvenate growth, policymakers must undo the trade barriers put in place with durable agreements, rein in geopolitical tensions, and reduce domestic policy uncertainty. Such actions can help boost confidence and reinvigorate investment, manufacturing, and trade. In this regard, we look forward to more details on the recent tentative deal reached between China and the United States. We welcome any steps to de-escalate tensions and to roll back recent trade measures, particularly if they can provide a path towards a comprehensive and lasting deal.
为了重振经济增长，政策制定者必须通过持久的协议消除贸易壁垒，控制地缘政治紧张局势，并减少国内政策不确定性。这些行动有助于提升信心，并为投资、制造业和贸易注入新的活力。在这方面，我们期待更多了解中国和美国之间最近达成的初步协议的细节。我们欢迎就缓解紧张局势和取消最近实施的贸易措施而采取的任何举措，特别是如果这些举措能为实现全面和持久的协议提供途径。
To fend off other risks to growth and to raise potential output, economic policy should support activity in a more balanced manner. Monetary policy cannot be the only game in town. It should be coupled with fiscal support where fiscal space is available, and policy is not already too expansionary. Countries like Germany and the Netherlands should take advantage of low borrowing rates to invest in social and infrastructure capital, even from a pure cost-benefit perspective. If growth were to deteriorate more severely, an internationally coordinated fiscal response, tailored to country circumstances, may be required.
为了防范经济增长面临的其他风险并提高潜在产出，经济政策应以更均衡的方式支持经济活动。不能仅仅依赖货币政策。在具备财政空间、政策尚未过度扩张的国家，还应同时提供财政支持。德国和荷兰等国应利用低借款利率投资于社会和基础设施资本，甚至纯粹从成本收益角度考虑都应如此。如果经济增长出现更严重的下滑，可能需要采取在国际范围内协调、同时符合各国具体情况的财政应对行动。
While monetary easing has supported growth, it is essential that effective macroprudential regulation be deployed today to prevent mispricing of risk and excessive buildup of financial vulnerabilities.
尽管货币政策的放松支持了经济增长，但重要的是现在就应实施有效的宏观审慎监管，以防止风险定价不当以及金融脆弱性的过度积累。
For sustainable growth, it is important that countries undertake structural reforms to boost productivity, improve resilience, and lower inequality. Reforms in emerging market and developing economies are also more effective when good governance is already in place.
为实现可持续增长，各国必须实施结构性改革，以提高生产率，增强经济韧性并减轻不平等。在新兴市场和发展中经济体，良好的治理有助于提高改革有效性。
The global outlook remains precarious with a synchronized slowdown and uncertain recovery. At 3 percent growth, there is no room for policy mistakes and an urgent need for policymakers to support growth. The global trading system needs to be improved, not abandoned. Countries need to work together because multilateralism remains the only solution to tackling major issues, such as risks from climate change, cybersecurity risks, tax avoidance and tax evasion, and the opportunities and challenges of emerging financial technologies.
总之，鉴于全球增长同步减缓且复苏形势不确定，全球经济前景仍然堪忧。面对3%的低增长，政策不容出现失误，并且政策制定者迫切需要采取行动支持经济增长。需要改善而不是抛弃全球贸易体系。各国需要携手努力，因为应对气候变化、网络安全风险、避税和逃税以及新兴金融科技带来的机遇和挑战等重大问题，多边主义仍是唯一的解决途径。